Indicators

By Ross Kilburn · Founder, American Default Research

119 indicators tracking what happens when household finances break down. Some measure how fast the buffer is disappearing. Others track what comes next — the delinquencies, the filings, the charge-offs. Each one is a single thread in the pattern the American Distress Index follows.

Savings

14 indicators

How much financial cushion American households have left

Personal Saving Rate

Share of U.S. after-tax personal income not spent: 3.8%

Share of Adults Who Would Use Savings for a $1,000 Emergency

Latest reported observation from Bankrate Emergency Savings Report.

Wouldn't Pay a $400 Emergency With Cash

37% in 2025, the same as in 2024

Hardship Withdrawals From Workplace Retirement Plans

6% in 2025, compared with 5% in 2024

Households Spending Nearly All Their Income on Bills

Nearly 24%, 0.3 percentage points higher than in 2024

Share of Income Going to Debt Payments

11.11% of disposable income is owed in scheduled mortgage, auto, student loan and credit card minimum payments

Share of Income Going to Mortgage Payments

Just the mortgage portion of household debt service: scheduled mortgage payments as a share of the nation's after-tax income

Total Consumer Credit Owed (Excluding Mortgages)

Non-mortgage consumer credit held by lenders: credit cards, auto loans, student loans and other personal loans combined

Credit Card and Revolving Debt Outstanding

Balances on credit cards and other revolving lines held by lenders — does not include auto loans, student loans or home equity lines

Home Equity Lines of Credit Outstanding

How much borrowers owe on home equity lines of credit, from the New York Fed's credit-report sample

Workers With an Outstanding 401(k) Loan

13% at the end of 2025, the same as a year earlier

Credit Card Utilization — Higher-Balance Borrowers

The card account at the 75th percentile is using 49.67% of its credit limit

Median Net Worth of Renter Families

Net worth of the median renter family in the Federal Reserve's 2025 survey: $10,600, in 2025 dollars

$10,600 Dec 2025

Median Net Worth of Homeowner Families

Homeowner families' median net worth in the Federal Reserve's 2025 survey: $458,900, in 2025 dollars

$458,900 Dec 2025

Debt

20 indicators

Late payments, charge-offs, and total debt across credit cards, auto loans, student loans, and mortgages

Credit Card Balances Past Due

2.85% of credit card balances at commercial banks are 30 or more days past due

Credit Card Debt Banks Have Written Off as Losses

3.82% annualized rate at which banks wrote off card balances, net of recoveries

Total Credit Card Balances

What U.S. consumers owe on bank-issued credit cards, from the New York Fed

Average Interest Rate on Credit Cards

21.19% average APR across bank credit card accounts, including accounts that pay no interest

Auto Loans 90+ Days Past Due

5.49% of auto loan balances are 90 or more days late or severely derogatory

Share of Student Loan Balances 90+ Days Delinquent

10.6% of student loan balances are 90 or more days late

Non-Card Consumer Loans 30+ Days Past Due

Consumer loans other than credit cards at commercial banks, 30 or more days past due or in nonaccrual status

Credit Card Delinquency at Banks Outside the Top 100

Banks outside the top 100 report 6.49% credit card loan balances delinquent or in nonaccrual status

Household Debt in Any Stage of Delinquency

4.73% of the debt on credit reports — mortgages, cards, auto, student and other loans — is 30 or more days late

Total U.S. Household Debt

Reported household debt across mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, HELOCs, and other categories — $18.77 trillion

$18.77T Q2 2026

Card Delinquency Gap: Smaller vs. Largest Banks

Card delinquency at banks outside the 100 largest minus the 100 largest: 3.8 percentage points

3.75 percentage points Q2 2026

TransUnion Credit Card Serious Delinquency

TransUnion's share of credit card borrowers 90 or more days past due is higher than a year earlier

Share of Bankcard Balances 60+ Days Past Due

Latest reported observation from Equifax Monthly Press Release.

Student Loan Borrowers Behind on Payments or in Collections

Share of adults with student loans for their own education who say they are behind on payments or in collections

New Serious Delinquency, Borrowers Age 18 to 29

4.04% of the debt owed by borrowers age 18 to 29 became 90 or more days late in the year to Q2 2026

New Serious Delinquency, Borrowers Age 30 to 39

2.86% of the debt owed by borrowers age 30 to 39 became 90 or more days late in the year to Q2 2026

New Serious Delinquency, Borrowers Age 40 to 49

2.53% of the debt owed by borrowers age 40 to 49 became 90 or more days late in the year to Q2 2026

New Serious Delinquency, Borrowers Age 50 to 59

2.6% of the debt owed by borrowers age 50 to 59 became 90 or more days late in the year to Q2 2026

New Serious Delinquency, Borrowers Age 60 to 69

1.74% of the debt owed by borrowers age 60 to 69 became 90 or more days late in the year to Q2 2026

New Serious Delinquency, Borrowers Age 70 and over

1.8% of the debt owed by borrowers age 70 and over became 90 or more days late in the year to Q2 2026

Housing

17 indicators

Mortgage stress, foreclosures, and housing affordability

FHA Mortgage Delinquency (HUD)

13.64% of FHA loans at least one payment behind, in HUD's monthly report

13.64% Aug 2026

Bank-Booked Mortgages Delinquent

1.86% of single-family mortgage balances at commercial banks are 30 or more days past due or in nonaccrual status

All Debt 90+ Days Past Due

3.31% of all consumer loan balances on credit reports are 90 or more days late

Foreclosure Filings, Year-Over-Year Change

Latest reported observation from ATTOM Data Solutions.

Median Sale Price of New Homes

The middle sale price of newly built single-family houses sold in the U.S., land included; resales of existing homes are not counted

$393,300 Q3 2026

Foreclosure Starts per Bank Repossession

Foreclosure starts for each home a lender took back, by ATTOM's monthly counts

Current-to-30-Day Mortgage Transition Rate

0.6% of mortgages transitioned from current to 30 days past due during the reported month

New Mortgage Loans Issued

Quarterly dollar volume of newly originated mortgages

Monthly FHA Loan Endorsements

New FHA-insured home loans endorsed each month, nationwide

78,925 Aug 2026

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Loans Seriously Delinquent

0.59% of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans were 90 or more days behind or in foreclosure at the end of July 2026

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Loans in Forbearance

38,002 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans were on a forbearance plan, a pause or cut in payments, at the end of July 2026

38,002 Jul 2026

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Loan Modifications

7,503 permanent loan modifications completed on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in July 2026

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Foreclosure Prevention Actions

16,195 foreclosure prevention actions completed on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in July 2026

16,195 Jul 2026

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Foreclosure Starts

7,569 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans referred to an attorney to begin foreclosure in July 2026

Mortgages With Less Than 10 Percent Equity

4.7% of outstanding first mortgages had less than 10 percent equity at the end of Q2 2026

Underwater Mortgages

0.3% of outstanding first mortgages owed more than the home was estimated to be worth at the end of Q2 2026

Size of New Homes Completed

Median new single-family home completed in Q2 2026: 2,105 square feet

Jobs

11 indicators

Weekly layoff filings, monthly job numbers, wage growth, and who's hiring

New Unemployment Filings This Week

Weekly count of initial claims for state unemployment benefits, seasonally adjusted, from the Labor Department

194,000 Oct 24, 2026

Continued Unemployment Claims (Insured Unemployment)

Weekly count of continued weeks claimed in state unemployment programs, seasonally adjusted, from the Labor Department

1,701,000 Oct 17, 2026

Challenger Job Cut Announcements

Latest reported observation from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Workers Voluntarily Quitting Their Jobs

Quits equaled 2.1% of U.S. payroll jobs in September 2026, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS survey

Official Unemployment Rate

4.2% of the labor force is jobless and looking for work, or on temporary layoff — the headline number everyone watches

Unemployment + Underemployment Rate

BLS's broadest jobless measure: adds part-time workers who want full-time hours and people marginally attached to the labor force

Total U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Jobs

Monthly estimate of jobs on U.S. nonfarm payrolls; recent observations are subject to revision

Working Part Time for Economic Reasons

People with jobs who worked part time because of cut hours or no full-time work, and wanted full-time hours

Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation

Bottom-quartile wage growth minus CPI inflation; below zero means pay growth ran behind prices

1.1 percentage points 2025

Wage Growth for the Lowest-Paid Workers

Median yearly pay growth for workers in the bottom wage quartile, before inflation

Job Postings Relative to Pre-Pandemic Levels

103.7 on an index where 100 = postings on Indeed's U.S. site on February 1, 2020

103.67 Oct 23, 2026

Prices

16 indicators

How fast groceries, rent, gas, and healthcare are getting more expensive

Overall Inflation Rate (Year-Over-Year)

Latest reported observation from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data retrieved via FRED.

Food Price Inflation (Year-Over-Year)

Latest reported observation from BLS.

Car Insurance Price Inflation

Latest reported observation from BLS.

-4.98% Sep 2026

Healthcare Cost Inflation

Latest reported observation from BLS.

Energy Price Inflation

Latest reported observation from BLS.

20.35% Sep 2026

How Much Grocery Prices Have Gone Up Since 2020

Total change in grocery prices since January 2020, seasonally adjusted: 31.87%. A total over the period, not a yearly rate

31.87% Sep 2026

Shelter Inflation (Rent + Owners' Equivalent Rent)

Latest reported observation from BLS.

Year-Over-Year Change in Prescription Drug Prices

Latest reported observation from BLS.

-4.48% Sep 2026

Medical Inflation vs. Overall Inflation

Yearly change in medical care prices minus the yearly change in all consumer prices, in percentage points: -2.2 percentage points in September 2026

-2.21 percentage points Sep 2026

Gas Price to Pay Ratio

The quarterly average price of a gallon of regular gas as a share of median full-time weekly pay, both in today's dollars: 0.33 in Q3 2026

Car Insurance Inflation vs. Overall Inflation

Yearly change in motor vehicle insurance prices minus the yearly change in all consumer prices, in percentage points: -8.7 percentage points in September 2026

-8.7 percentage points Sep 2026

Grocery Affordability Gap

Yearly change in average hourly earnings minus the yearly change in food CPI, in percentage points: 0.6 percentage points in September 2026

0.57 percentage points Sep 2026

Share of Disposable Income Spent on Energy

Energy spending, including gasoline, fuel, electricity and gas, was 3.65% of U.S. disposable income in Q3 2026

Federal Customs Duties Relative to Disposable Income

Federal customs duties as a share of aggregate disposable personal income: 1.17% in 2025

Home Insurance Price Inflation

Latest reported observation from BLS.

Child Care Price Inflation

Latest reported observation from BLS.

Courts

8 indicators

Bankruptcy filings, consumer complaints, and what happens when people can't pay

Bankruptcy Filings (Year-Over-Year Change)

Latest reported observation from Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts.

Chapter 7-to-Chapter 13 Filing Ratio

1.8 times Chapter 7 cases for each Chapter 13 case in the 12-month totals through Q3 2026

All-Loan Charge-Off Rate

Annualized net charge-off rate on all loans and leases at U.S. commercial banks, business and household lending combined: 0.55%

Mortgage Charge-Off Rate

Annualized net charge-off rate on home loans and home equity lines held by U.S. commercial banks: 0%

"Start Over" Bankruptcies (Year-Over-Year Change)

Latest reported observation from Computed from Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts Table F-2.

Chapter 13 Bankruptcy Filings (Year-Over-Year Change)

Latest reported observation from Computed from Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts Table F-2.

Consumer Financial Complaints Filed With the Government

718,186 complaints about financial companies received by the CFPB in October 2026 and published in its Consumer Complaint Database

718,186 Oct 2026

Residential Electricity Disconnections

EIA's first federal count of residential electricity shutoffs for unpaid bills; natural gas is counted separately and never added

13,447,935 2024

Warning Signs

7 indicators

Surveys and financial signals that move before other stress measures

Consumer Sentiment: How Americans Rate Their Finances and the Economy

University of Michigan national survey of personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions: 48 in October 2026 (1966 = 100)

Consumer Expectations for the Next Six Months

Conference Board six-month outlook index at 72.6; the Board treats readings below 80 as a recession warning

Household and Business Debt Growth (Chicago Fed)

Chicago Fed index of how fast household and business debt ratios are growing compared with their long-run average; zero is average

-0.46 Oct 30, 2026

Are Banks Making It Harder to Get a Credit Card?

Net percentage of large U.S. banks tightening standards for approving credit card applications, reported quarterly by the Federal Reserve

Gap Between Wage Growth and Inflation

Median hourly wage growth minus CPI inflation: 0.2 percentage points in September 2026

0.18 percentage points Sep 2026

Americans Receiving Food Stamps (SNAP)

People in households receiving SNAP benefits, reported monthly to USDA

36,087,667 Jul 2026

Card Spending Growth Gap: High- vs Low-Income ZIP Codes

Top-quartile minus bottom-quartile spending growth sits at -13.9 percentage points

-13.9 percentage points Jun 2026

Who's Hurting

8 indicators

Food stamps, homelessness, and the demographics of who's falling through the cracks

Adults Having Trouble Paying Usual Household Expenses

Latest reported observation from U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey.

21.3% Aug 3, 2026

Financially Healthy Households (FinHealth Pulse)

31% of households scored Financially Healthy, the same share as in 2025

Households Without a Bank Account

4.2% in 2023, about the same as the 4.5% of 2021

States Where Credit Card Delinquency Has Passed 10%

36 states, counting DC, where more than 10% of credit card balances are 90+ days late

Paid Less or Skipped a Bill

18.3% of adults, about the same as the 19.2% of Q3 2025; each reading covers the prior 12 months

People Enrolled in Medicaid or CHIP

72.9 million enrolled in July 2026, down from 77.6 million a year earlier

72,946,510 Jul 2026

People Experiencing Homelessness

745,652 in 2025, down from 771,480 in 2024

Didn't Have Enough to Eat

8% in 2025, about the same as 2024's 7%

AI & Work

6 indicators

AI capability, AI-linked layoffs, and labor-market exposure

Businesses Using AI in Their Operations

10% in the survey period ending September 2025, the last reading on the original question, up from 6% in September 2024

10% Sep 21, 2025

METR Task-Completion Horizon

A fitted 50 percent success threshold for METR benchmark tasks, not elapsed agent runtime

Job Cuts Where Companies Cited AI as a Reason

Latest reported observation from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Information-Sector Job Openings

Open positions at information-sector employers, including software publishing, telecommunications and data processing

Unemployment Rate for Young Workers (16-24)

Monthly BLS unemployment rate for people ages 16 to 24 in the labor force

Share of Indeed Job Postings Mentioning AI

Month-end share of postings on Indeed's US site that mention AI terms, from

The Deal

12 indicators

Pay, job security, bargaining power, and how the gains get divided

Real Production & Nonsupervisory Wage

Production and nonsupervisory jobs average $9.7 an hour in 1982-84 dollars

Real Median Weekly Earnings

The median full-time worker's weekly pay is $370 in 1982-84 dollars

Productivity-Pay Wedge

The wedge reads 109.9: output per hour relative to real hourly pay, 2017 = 100

Long-Term Unemployed Share (27+ Weeks)

27.1% of the unemployed have been looking for work 27 weeks or more

Involuntary Part-Time Share of Employment

2.76% of employed people worked part time for an economic reason

Union Membership Rate

10% of employed wage and salary workers were union members, from BLS's annual count

Labor Share of Nonfarm Business Output

Seasonally adjusted BLS labor-share index at 93.4, with 2017=100

Family Income Inequality (Gini)

Census Bureau Gini index of pretax money income across U.S. families, on a 0-to-1 scale

Bottom-Half Share of Household Wealth

The bottom 50 percent of households by wealth holds 2.3% of all household net worth

Prime-Age Employment Rate (25-54)

80.7% of people ages 25 to 54 have a job

Multiple Jobholders Share of Employment

5.5% of workers are holding down more than one job

Real Federal Minimum Wage

The $7.25 federal minimum wage is worth $2.2 an hour in 1982-84 dollars

Archived

Buy Now Pay Later Lending Volume $43.9 billion Final reading: 2023. The figures come from a single CFPB market report covering 2019 to 2023, and no later year has been published.
Food-Insecure U.S. Households 13.7% Final reading: 2024. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has ended this annual report, so no later year will be published.

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New data, and changes to the American Distress Index. Nothing else.

Sources and method

We write with assistance from AI tools. Figures come from the data and sources named on this page.