Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index
Conference Board index of what consumers expect for the next six months
Where the Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index stands now
The Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index was 72.6 in October 2026. Since 2024 it has ranged from 54.4 in April 2025 to 92.3 in November 2024.
What it means for households: Consumer Debt Statistics
How the Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index has moved since 2024
Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index: little changed over the past year
Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index, monthly: 72.6 in October 2026, little changed from 71.5 a year earlier. Monthly, 2024–2026.
What the Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index measures
Measurement basis: The Conference Board's Consumer Expectations Index, the forward-looking half of its Consumer Confidence Survey, covering how respondents see income, business conditions and employment over the next six months. The Conference Board treats a reading below eighty as signalling a recession ahead within the year; that threshold is the producer's, not ours. It marks elevated risk rather than a timer: the index has run below the line for long stretches without a recession following, including the current run.
A lower index value is worse for households.
Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index by month, 2024 to 2026
| Month | Index value | Change from a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 72.6 | +1.1 |
| Sep 2026 | 65.7 | −7.7 |
| Aug 2026 | 69.5 | −5.3 |
| Jul 2026 | 74.7 | +0.3 |
| Jun 2026 | 74.4 | +5.4 |
| May 2026 | 74.4 | +1.6 |
| Apr 2026 | 73.4 | +19 |
| Mar 2026 | 71 | +5.8 |
| Feb 2026 | 72 | −0.9 |
| Jan 2026 | 65.1 | −18.8 |
| Dec 2025 | 70.7 | −10.4 |
| Nov 2025 | 63.2 | −29.1 |
| Oct 2025 | 71.5 | −17.6 |
| Sep 2025 | 73.4 | −8.3 |
| Aug 2025 | 74.8 | −7.7 |
| Jul 2025 | 74.4 | −3.8 |
| Jun 2025 | 69 | −4 |
| May 2025 | 72.8 | −1.8 |
| Apr 2025 | 54.4 | −12 |
| Mar 2025 | 65.2 | −8.6 |
| Feb 2025 | 72.9 | −6.9 |
| Jan 2025 | 83.9 | +0.1 |
| Dec 2024 | 81.1 | — |
| Nov 2024 | 92.3 | — |
| Oct 2024 | 89.1 | — |
| Sep 2024 | 81.7 | — |
| Aug 2024 | 82.5 | — |
| Jul 2024 | 78.2 | — |
| Jun 2024 | 73 | — |
| May 2024 | 74.6 | — |
| Apr 2024 | 66.4 | — |
| Mar 2024 | 73.8 | — |
| Feb 2024 | 79.8 | — |
| Jan 2024 | 83.8 | — |
Monthly · The Conference Board
Counties with the highest debt burden scores
There's no county figure for this measure, so this list uses the debt burden part of our County Distress Index.
| Rank | County | Score (0–100) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bronx County, NY | 99.6 |
| 2 | Miami-Dade County, FL | 99.4 |
| 3 | Rockland County, NY | 99.4 |
| 4 | Clayton County, GA | 99.1 |
| 5 | Broward County, FL | 99 |
| 6 | Palm Beach County, FL | 98.8 |
| 7 | Santa Barbara County, CA | 98.4 |
| 8 | St. Lucie County, FL | 98.4 |
| 9 | Osceola County, FL | 98.3 |
| 10 | Orleans Parish, LA | 98 |
Questions about the Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index
What is the Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index?
It is the forward-looking half of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index: the average of three questions about business conditions, jobs and family income six months ahead. The October 2026 preliminary reading is 72.6. A year earlier, in October 2025, it was about the same, at 71.5.
Does a reading below 80 mean a recession is coming?
Not on a set timetable. The Conference Board says readings below 80 usually or historically signal a recession ahead, but its wording on timing has varied, and it has not published a study setting out the evidence for the line. Treat it as the Board's warning level, not a prediction.
Where does the consumer expectations data come from?
The Conference Board publishes it monthly from its Consumer Confidence Survey, an online sample run by Toluna of about 3,000 responses a month under its 2021 design. The preliminary figure comes out on the last Tuesday of the month it covers, and the final figure a month later. Regional and state figures are not seasonally adjusted and there is no county data.
Sources and method for the Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index
- The Conference Board Measurement basis: The Conference Board's Consumer Expectations Index, the forward-looking half of its Consumer Confidence Survey, covering how respondents see income, business conditions and employment over the next six months. The Conference Board treats a reading below eighty as signalling a recession ahead within the year; that threshold is the producer's, not ours. It marks elevated risk rather than a timer: the index has run below the line for long stretches without a recession following, including the current run. We use the monthly figures as published, from January 2024 through October 2026, with no adjustment of our own. The Conference Board’s report
We write with assistance from AI tools. Figures come from the data and sources named on this page.