The Energy Squeeze

The 2022 energy shock pushed the household energy burden to 4.7 percent of disposable income, according to BEA data computed from FRED. That erased most of the decade-long decline that followed the shale gas boom, when 2008 through 2013 regularly ran above 5 percent. Every household felt it at the gas pump and in the utility bill at the same time.

The relief came fast. By early 2023, the burden had fallen back under 4 percent. By late 2024 it was at 3.4 percent. Then it stopped moving. The quarterly readings for all of 2025 cluster between 3.27 and 3.47 percent. The decline ended.

Before the pandemic, this number was drifting toward 3 percent on falling natural gas prices and improving efficiency. The glide path broke. The post-shock plateau now sits about fifty basis points above where the pre-pandemic trend was heading, which works out to several hundred dollars a year for a median household that never got it back.

This is the quiet pressure. It doesn't show up in a headline the way The Pump Tax does when gasoline spikes. It shows up at the end of the month, in the check that clears a few days late because the heating bill came in higher than expected.