American Worker Index
One score for the deal between American work and reward. 4 domains. 9 long-run public series. Every quarter since 1948.
On average, the American worker's inputs sit worse than in 66% of their own quarterly histories.
The composite itself sits higher than 87% of all published quarters since 1948.
Latest scored quarter: 2025-Q3
Score Bands
The 0–100 scale splits into five equal bands. The label describes where the present quarter sits in the worker’s own postwar record. Higher bands mean more of that record is being exceeded — a worse position for the worker.
The Deal Since 1948
The published series runs 1948-Q1 through 2025-Q3 — 311 quarters. It peaks at 85.9 in 2011-Q4 and bottoms at 10.0 in 1953-Q2. Nothing in the method points at those quarters; they emerge from ranking each series against its own record.
American Worker Index — quarterly composite, 1948-Q1 to 2025-Q3
Source: American Default Research. AWI computed quarterly from BLS, Census Bureau, and Federal Reserve source data via FRED.
Inside the Number
Four equal-weighted domains. Each is scored 0–100 against its own postwar history, then averaged into the composite. A domain score is a mean of its members’ percentiles — not itself a rank.
The Paycheck
- Real Production & Nonsupervisory Wage49.8
- Real Median Weekly Earnings85.2
- Productivity-Pay Wedge79.0
The Job
- Unemployment Rate25.6
- Involuntary Part-Time Share of Employment17.4
The Power
- Union Membership Rate98.7
- Labor Share of Nonfarm Business Income99.2
The Divide
- Family Income Inequality (Gini)93.7
- Bottom 50% Share of Household Wealth49.3
Domain scores are the 2025-Q3 scored quarter. Each member is shown as its Hazen percentile within its own postwar history (0–100, higher is worse for the worker).
How the Index Is Built
A Wire-level summary. The full methodology page carries the formal write-up, the seam documentation, and the replication scripts.
Construction. 9 series across 4 domains. equal domains: full-coverage weight = 1/len(DOMAIN_IDS); published composite = unweighted mean of present domains; zero hand-typed weights
One transform. Hazen percentile per series over its entire available quarterly history in one pass: (average_rank - 0.5) / n * 100, ties averaged. One yardstick, shared with the ADI/SDI/CDI family.
Orientation. Every input's direction field is read from its JSON; lower_is_worse values are negated before ranking so higher always means worse for the worker. A missing or unexpected direction aborts the build.
De-trended pay. the three Paycheck members (real production wage, real median weekly earnings, productivity-pay wedge) enter as 5-year annualized % growth before ranking — de-trending the wage series so a record real level does not read as favorable, and answering the trending-percentile critique
Publication gate. publish a quarter only when at least 3 of the 4 domains have a present member; the composite is the equal-weight mean of the domains present.
Family. The American Worker Index is the worker-conditions member of the index family. ADI ranks the nation's present quarter against its own history; SDI and CDI rank places; AWI ranks the American worker's present quarter against 1948-present. Same Hazen transform, same orientation rule, same equal-weight-domain shape.
Vintages. Inputs are revised series (BLS, BEA, and Federal Reserve constructs via FRED, plus the spliced union-membership series). Historical AWI values are computed on today's revised vintages. Every run restates the full history: the percentile yardstick grows by one quarter per refresh and upstream revisions re-rank past quarters. No out-of-sample claim is made for any historical reading, and the index makes no forecast.
| Series | Domain | Source | Starts | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Production & Nonsupervisory Wage | The Paycheck | Computed (BLS AHETPI / CPI via FRED) | 1969-Q1 | lower = worse |
Real Median Weekly Earnings (LES1252881600Q) | The Paycheck | BLS via FRED | 1984-Q1 | lower = worse |
| Productivity-Pay Wedge | The Paycheck | Computed (BLS OPHNFB vs COMPRNFB via FRED) | 1952-Q1 | higher = worse |
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) | The Job | BLS via FRED | 1948-Q1 | higher = worse |
| Involuntary Part-Time Share of Employment | The Job | Computed (BLS LNS12032194 / CE16OV via FRED) | 1955-Q2 | higher = worse |
| Union Membership Rate | The Power | BLS Union Members (spliced) | 1948-Q1 | lower = worse |
Labor Share of Nonfarm Business Income (PRS85006173) | The Power | BLS via FRED | 1947-Q1 | lower = worse |
Family Income Inequality (Gini) (GINIALLRF) | The Divide | Census via FRED | 1947-Q1 | higher = worse |
Bottom 50% Share of Household Wealth (WFRBSB50215) | The Divide | Federal Reserve via FRED | 1989-Q3 | lower = worse |
Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the American Worker Index?
The American Worker Index is a quarterly 0–100 score of the American worker’s overall position, published by American Default Research. It averages 4 domains — pay, job security, bargaining power, and how the gains get divided — each measured against its own history from 1948 to today. Higher readings mean a worse position for the worker.
Why does it read High while unemployment is low?
Unemployment measures whether people have jobs. The index also measures what those jobs pay relative to what workers produce, how much bargaining power workers hold, and how the economy’s gains are split. Bargaining power is the standout: union membership and labor’s share of income sit at or near their weakest levels of the postwar era. Pay and the divide read high against their own histories too, even while the monthly labor market looks calm.
What data goes into it?
9 long-run federal series from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve — including union membership, labor share of income, long-term unemployment, real production-worker wages, the family income Gini, and the bottom-half share of household wealth. Every series is public and every value traces to its source.
Is this a forecast?
No. The index scores current and historical conditions only. American Default Research does not publish forecasts, and the index makes no claim about where any series goes next. It states where the American worker stands today against the published record since 1948.
Can I use the data and charts?
Yes. The full quarterly series downloads as CSV or JSON, and everything on this page may be republished with attribution to American Default Research. Journalists can request the methodology paper and a walk-through from the press desk at the press page.
Use This Work
Built to be quoted. Every number on this page traces to a named federal series.
Cite the index
American Default Research, "American Worker Index," 2025-Q3: 65.8 (High). On average, the American worker's inputs sit worse than in 66% of their own quarterly histories. https://americandefault.org/awi/
Download the data
Full quarterly series, 1948–present, with domain and member detail.
For machines
Dataset schema on this page (JSON-LD). Series available over the American Default MCP server and in llms.txt. Stable URL, quarterly cadence, versioned methodology.
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