Upstream Pressure

The Pump Tax

Gas prices relative to median weekly earnings

What is the current The Pump Tax?

GAS COST AS SHARE OF WEEKLY PAY
1.09% ↑ Worsening
of median weekly earnings per gallon of regular gas
One year ago
0.84% ↑ Worsening
up 0.2 points since Q2 2025

American households are spending 0.78% of disposable income on gasoline in the latest reading. The Pump Tax tracks gasoline costs as a share of household income — a direct measure of fuel affordability. While the percentage appears small, gas spending is regressive: lower-income households spend 3-4x this share because they drive older, less efficient vehicles and live farther from work. Source: EIA, BEA.

A gallon of gas now costs 1.1 percent of median weekly earnings. That is the highest reading since the 2022 energy shock, back above the pre-pandemic norm.

The gas affordability ratio is a simple piece of math. Take the weekly retail price of regular gas. Divide by median full-time weekly earnings. The result is the share of one week's pay that buys one gallon. EIA and BLS data via FRED make the calculation automatic.

The pre-pandemic normal sat near 0.7 percent. The 2022 peak hit 1.25 percent as gas briefly cleared five dollars a gallon. Through 2023 and 2024 the ratio retreated into the 0.8 range. That was the story everyone remembers. Prices came back down.

They came back down, then they started climbing again. The Q2 2026 reading is 1.10 percent, the highest since the 2022 shock. The climb happened in spite of the earnings side. Wages kept growing. Gas prices grew faster.

Gasoline is a regressive cost. The bottom income quartile spends roughly three times the share of income on fuel that the top quartile does. That same quartile is the one showing up in The Divergence, where low-income consumer spending growth now trails high-income spending by nearly 10 points. A rising pump tax is one of the mechanisms pulling the bottom half of the economy away from the top.

Explore Further

Is this happening to you?

Is filling up the tank taking a bigger bite out of your budget than it used to?

How has The Pump Tax changed over time?

CSV Chart Card
The pump tax is climbing back toward its 2022 peak
Weekly regular gasoline price as percent of median full-time weekly earnings, quarterly
The Pump Tax
Historical data
Quarterly · Computed (EIA/BLS via FRED: GASREGW / LES1252881600Q)
Period Value YoY Change
Q2 2026 1.09% +0.2 pts
Q1 2026 0.84% +0.0 pts
Q4 2025 0.8% −0.0 pts
Q3 2025 0.84% −0.1 pts
Q2 2025 0.84% −0.1 pts
Q1 2025 0.83% −0.1 pts
Q4 2024 0.82% −0.1 pts
Q3 2024 0.91% −0.1 pts
Q2 2024 0.97% −0.0 pts
Q1 2024 0.88% −0.0 pts
Q4 2023 0.91% −0.1 pts
Q3 2023 1.02% −0.1 pts

Frequently Asked Questions

What is The Pump Tax?

The Pump Tax measures gasoline spending as a percentage of household disposable income. At 0.78%, it captures how much fuel costs burden the average American household.

Why does gas affordability matter for distress?

Gasoline is essential for commuting to work. When fuel costs spike, lower-income households — who already spend a disproportionate share on gas — must cut other spending or take on debt.

Where does this data come from?

Computed from EIA gasoline price data and BEA disposable personal income data.

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Why does The Pump Tax matter?

The Pump Tax is one of 91 indicators in the American Distress Index's upstream pressure layer — the signal that predicted the 2008 crisis two years before delinquency data confirmed it.
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