{
  "meta": {
    "slug": "the-warning-light",
    "name": "Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index",
    "branded_name": "The Warning Light",
    "description": null,
    "source": "The Conference Board",
    "source_credit": null,
    "source_url": "https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence",
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "units": "index",
    "fred_series_id": null,
    "fred_edge_series_id": null,
    "bls_series_id": null,
    "series_id": null,
    "measurement_basis": "The Conference Board's Consumer Expectations Index, the forward-looking half of its Consumer Confidence Survey, covering how respondents see income, business conditions and employment over the next six months. The Conference Board treats a reading below eighty as signalling a recession ahead within the year; that threshold is the producer's, not ours. It marks elevated risk rather than a timer: the index has run below the line for long stretches without a recession following, including the current run.",
    "door": 0,
    "trend": "rising",
    "trend_suppressed": null,
    "series_breaks": [],
    "direction": "lower_is_worse",
    "last_updated": "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z",
    "stale": false,
    "stale_reason": null,
    "data_status": "current",
    "page_url": "https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-warning-light/",
    "attribution": "American Default (americandefault.org) — Our analysis is free to use with attribution to American Default Research. Source data stays under each publisher's terms; cite the source named here."
  },
  "current": {
    "value": 72.6,
    "date": "2026-10-01"
  },
  "last_verified": null,
  "data": [
    {
      "date": "2024-01-01",
      "value": 83.8
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-02-01",
      "value": 79.8
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-03-01",
      "value": 73.8
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-04-01",
      "value": 66.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-05-01",
      "value": 74.6
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-06-01",
      "value": 73
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-07-01",
      "value": 78.2
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-08-01",
      "value": 82.5
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-09-01",
      "value": 81.7
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-10-01",
      "value": 89.1
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-11-01",
      "value": 92.3
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-12-01",
      "value": 81.1
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-01-01",
      "value": 83.9
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-02-01",
      "value": 72.9
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-03-01",
      "value": 65.2
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-04-01",
      "value": 54.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-05-01",
      "value": 72.8
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-06-01",
      "value": 69
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-07-01",
      "value": 74.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-08-01",
      "value": 74.8
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-09-01",
      "value": 73.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-10-01",
      "value": 71.5
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-11-01",
      "value": 63.2
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-12-01",
      "value": 70.7
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "value": 65.1
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-01",
      "value": 72
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-01",
      "value": 71
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "value": 73.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-01",
      "value": 74.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "value": 74.4
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-01",
      "value": 74.7
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-01",
      "value": 69.5
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "value": 65.7
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-01",
      "value": 72.6
    }
  ]
}