Upstream Pressure
Leading Indicator

CPI Inflation Rate (All Items)

Year-over-year change in consumer prices

Validated leading indicator for Motor Vehicle Insurance CPI (3q lag) — currently dormant. Motor Vehicle Insurance CPI · View projections

What is the current CPI Inflation Rate (All Items)?

CPI INFLATION RATE
3.32% ↑ Worsening
year-over-year increase in consumer prices
One year ago
2.38% ↑ Worsening
up 0.9 points since Mar 2025

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items rose 2.66% year-over-year in the latest reading, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While headline inflation has moderated from its 2022 peak, cumulative price increases since 2020 continue to strain household budgets — especially for food, shelter, and healthcare. Source: BLS via FRED (CPIAUCSL).

Headline CPI is running at 3.3 percent. Above the Fed's 2 percent target for the fifth straight year, compounding on price levels already 20 percent above 2020.

The year-over-year inflation rate is the number Wall Street watches. It's the number the Fed talks about. It's the number that shows up in every headline. At 3.3 percent in March 2026, it reads as roughly in line with target and a full six points below its 2022 peak.

The price level is the number households pay. Cumulative prices are up more than 20 percent since January 2020, according to BLS data. That accumulation does not reverse. Inflation cooling means prices grow more slowly from here. It does not mean a 2019 grocery bill is coming back.

The five-year overshoot matters because it changes how households think about their own budgets. A decade of 2 percent inflation is a background condition. Five consecutive years of 3 percent or higher is a running shortfall in real wages for every household whose nominal pay didn't keep up. The Buffer at near-record lows and The Squeeze at 24 percent of households spending 95 percent of income on necessities are both consequences of this overshoot.

The rate cooling is real. The relief is not. Households are not getting back what the 2021-2023 inflation took. They are watching the rate of loss slow down while the cumulative hole stays where it is.

Source: BLS via FRED · Latest: 2026-03

Explore Further

How has CPI Inflation Rate (All Items) changed over time?

CSV Chart Card
Inflation has cooled from 2022 peaks but remains above 2%
Consumer Price Index inflation rate, all items, year-over-year
CPI Inflation Rate (All Items)
Historical data
Monthly · BLS via FRED
Period Value YoY Change
Mar 2026 3.32% +0.9 pts
Feb 2026 2.66% −0.1 pts
Jan 2026 2.83% −0.2 pts
Dec 2025 3% +0.1 pts
Nov 2025 2.99% +0.3 pts
Sep 2025 3.02% +0.6 pts
Aug 2025 2.94% +0.3 pts
Jul 2025 2.74% −0.2 pts
Jun 2025 2.68% −0.3 pts
May 2025 2.38% −0.9 pts
Apr 2025 2.33% −1.0 pts
Mar 2025 2.38% −1.1 pts

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current CPI inflation rate?

The all-items CPI inflation rate was 2.66% year-over-year in the latest BLS reading. This measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services.

Why does CPI matter for financial distress?

Even moderate inflation erodes purchasing power. The American Distress Index tracks the cumulative impact: grocery prices are up 32.7% since January 2020, and shelter costs continue rising faster than wages.

Where does CPI data come from?

Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, available via FRED series CPIAUCSL.

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Why does CPI Inflation Rate (All Items) matter?

CPI Inflation Rate (All Items) is one of 91 indicators in the American Distress Index's upstream pressure layer — the signal that predicted the 2008 crisis two years before delinquency data confirmed it.
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