Upstream Pressure

Food and Beverages CPI

Year-over-year change in food and beverage prices

What is the current Food and Beverages CPI?

GROCERY PRICE INFLATION
3.14% ↓ Improving
year-over-year increase in food prices
One year ago
2.92% ↑ Worsening
up 0.2 points since Mar 2025

The food-at-home Consumer Price Index rose 3.33.1% year-over-year in the latest reading, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Grocery prices continue to outpace overall inflation, compounding a cumulative 32.7% increase since January 2020. Food costs disproportionately burden lower-income households who spend a larger share of income on groceries. Source: BLS (CUSR0000SAF1).

Food and beverage inflation has reaccelerated to 3.1 percent. A rebound that arrives on top of cumulative grocery prices already 33 percent above their 2020 level.

Food inflation fell hard through 2023 and most of 2024. The year-over-year rate dipped as low as 2.1 percent in August 2024, the softest food-and-beverages print since 2021. For a moment it looked like the grocery aisle had finally caught up to the rest of the disinflation story.

It reversed. BLS data shows food and beverage CPI back above 3 percent as of March 2026, and the trajectory through the second half of 2025 was a steady climb. Whatever cooling was in the pipeline has stopped. Dairy, beef, and coffee categories have all re-accelerated. Processing costs and the new tariff regime tracked in The Import Tax are both feeding through.

The annual rate cooling and then climbing does not reverse what the cumulative damage has done. Grocery Prices Cumulative Change Since Jan 2020 sits at 32.6 percent. Households are not paying 2020 prices. They are paying 2026 prices, which are now climbing again at a pace above overall inflation.

The Grocery Gap shows the combined effect. Wage growth is running just 0.4 percentage points ahead of food-at-home inflation. That cushion was wider a year ago. It is narrowing as food prices reaccelerate. The reacceleration is doing most of the work.

Source: BLS · Latest: 2026-03

Explore Further

How has Food and Beverages CPI changed over time?

CSV Chart Card
Food price inflation has re-accelerated in early 2026
Food and beverages CPI, year-over-year percentage change
Food and Beverages CPI
Historical data
Monthly · BLS
Period Value YoY Change
Mar 2026 3.14% +0.2 pts
Feb 2026 3.33% +0.8 pts
Jan 2026 3.23% +0.8 pts
Dec 2025 3.3% +0.8 pts
Nov 2025 2.98% +0.6 pts
Sep 2025 3.11% +0.8 pts
Aug 2025 3.2% +1.1 pts
Jul 2025 2.89% +0.7 pts
Jun 2025 2.99% +0.7 pts
May 2025 2.9% +0.7 pts
Apr 2025 2.75% +0.5 pts
Mar 2025 2.92% +0.7 pts

Frequently Asked Questions

How fast are grocery prices rising?

Food-at-home prices rose 3.33.1% year-over-year in the latest BLS report. Cumulatively, grocery prices are up 32.7% since January 2020.

Why does food inflation matter for financial distress?

Food is non-discretionary spending. When grocery costs rise faster than wages, households must cut other spending or take on debt to eat — a direct driver of the financial distress the ADI tracks.

Where does food CPI data come from?

Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the CPI report, series CUSR0000SAF1 (food at home).

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Why does Food and Beverages CPI matter?

Food and Beverages CPI is one of 91 indicators in the American Distress Index's upstream pressure layer — the signal that predicted the 2008 crisis two years before delinquency data confirmed it.
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