The Grocery Gap
Gap between average hourly earnings growth and food-at-home inflation
What is the current The Grocery Gap?
Food prices are rising 0.51 percentage points faster than overall CPI in the latest reading. The Grocery Gap measures this spread between food-at-home inflation and general inflation — when positive, it means grocery costs are outpacing other prices, disproportionately burdening lower-income families who spend a larger share of income on food. Source: BLS (CUSR0000SAF1 minus CPIAUCSL).
The gap between wage growth and grocery inflation has narrowed to just 0.4 percentage points. The thinnest margin since food prices started climbing again in late 2024.
For a long stretch of 2023 and 2024, groceries were the one part of the household budget where workers were catching up. Wage growth ran more than a full point ahead of food-at-home CPI. The lead peaked near +1.5 percentage points. Grocery prices had already done their damage, and earnings were finally gaining ground.
That cushion is gone. BLS data shows the Grocery Gap tightened to +0.4 percentage points in March 2026. Food prices are reaccelerating toward 3.2 percent year-over-year. Wages are still growing, but not fast enough to keep the daylight visible.
A 0.4-point lead is not a win. It means the average hourly earner is treading water on one of the most frequent transactions in their budget. For households where grocery spending consumes a larger share of the paycheck, which is most households in the bottom half of the income distribution, the cushion closed much earlier and much harder.
Grocery Prices Cumulative Change Since Jan 2020 tells the other half of this story. Prices are 32.6 percent higher than they were at the start of 2020 and still climbing every month. The annual rate cooling and then reaccelerating doesn't reverse that accumulation. It just restarts it.
Explore Further
Is this happening to you?
Are you spending more on groceries even though you're buying less?
How has The Grocery Gap changed over time?
Most affected counties
Counties with the highest housing cost burden scores in the County Distress Index.
Explore all 3,144 counties →| Period | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | 0.38 pts | −0.9 pts |
| Feb 2026 | 0.42 pts | −1.1 pts |
| Jan 2026 | 0.42 pts | −1.1 pts |
| Dec 2025 | 0.43 pts | −1.2 pts |
| Nov 2025 | 0.95 pts | −0.9 pts |
| Sep 2025 | 0.73 pts | −0.9 pts |
| Aug 2025 | 0.78 pts | −1.1 pts |
| Jul 2025 | 1.07 pts | −0.4 pts |
| Jun 2025 | 0.86 pts | −0.8 pts |
| May 2025 | 1.09 pts | −0.9 pts |
| Apr 2025 | 1.16 pts | −0.6 pts |
| Mar 2025 | 1.3 pts | −0.6 pts |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is The Grocery Gap?
It measures the spread between food-at-home CPI inflation and overall CPI inflation. Currently 0.51 percentage points, meaning grocery prices are rising faster than general prices.
Why does the grocery gap matter?
Food is non-discretionary. When food prices rise faster than general inflation, lower-income households — who spend 25-35% of income on food — are disproportionately squeezed.
Where does this data come from?
Computed from BLS series CUSR0000SAF1 (food at home) minus CPIAUCSL (all items).
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Is this affecting you or your household?
Discussion
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