Grocery Prices +32.0% Since Jan 2020 — BLS CPI Food at Home (2026)
A 32.0% increase since January 2020. The grocery inflation shock peaked in 2022, but the cumulative price level remains elevated — and the gap between food costs and wages is narrowing again. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, updated monthly.
How Much Have Grocery Prices Increased Since 2020?
U.S. grocery prices are up 32.0% since January 2020, according to the BLS Food-at-Home Consumer Price Index (series CUSR0000SAF11). The raw seasonally adjusted index was 243.511 in January 2020, and the cumulative series reads +32.0% through June 2026. The Food CPI year-over-year rate is 3.0% — more than double the pre-pandemic norm of approximately 1.6%. Since January 2019, the cumulative increase is steeper still: +33.1% (from an index of 241.581). Households don't shop in rates. They shop against the shelf price.
Here's what gets missed in the "inflation is cooling" narrative. This was not a transient shock that reversed. The cumulative increase reached +11.4% by January 2022 and +23.9% by January 2023, then added 6.7 percentage points after January 2024. Each month of positive inflation compounds onto the prior increase. For households already falling behind on bills, the grocery line item alone can tip the balance. For prices to return to 2020 levels, grocery deflation would need to run for years — a scenario that has not materialized in any major food category. American Default tracks food and essential cost inflation as context for the American Distress Index's distress domains.
BLS CPI Food-at-Home Index Values (CUSR0000SAF11)
The raw index values researchers look for, directly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Series CUSR0000SAF11 (seasonally adjusted). The index uses a 1982–84 = 100 reference base. Current-period percentage changes on this page read from the committed cumulative series. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index.
Key Statistics at a Glance
The American Distress Index currently reads 43.8 (Typical). On average, its inputs sit higher than in 44% of their own quarterly histories. Grocery inflation is context for the index rather than a direct input. When food-at-home prices rise faster than earnings, households must either cut spending elsewhere or draw down savings — and the savings rate is the input to the ADI's Safety Net & Buffer domain. For the full cost picture beyond groceries — including auto insurance, healthcare, and shelter inflation — see the cost of living roundup.
How Much Have Groceries Gone Up Since 2020?
The chart below shows the cumulative percentage change in food-at-home prices since January 2020. Cumulative change — not year-over-year — is the metric that matches household experience. When the YoY rate falls from 11.4% to 3.0%, headlines report "cooling inflation." But the family buying groceries is paying 32.0% more than they did in January 2020. The cumulative view shows the total burden.
January 2019: -0.8% (below 2020 baseline) | January 2021: +3.7% | January 2022: +11.4% | January 2023: +23.9% | January 2024: +25.3% | January 2025: +27.6% | June 2026: +32.0% | Since January 2019: +33.1%
Cumulative Food-at-Home Price Increase Since Jan 2020 (%)
Source: BLS Food-at-Home CPI (CUSR0000SAF11), computed cumulative change from Jan 2020 base.
Full data: Grocery cumulative price indicator page
What Is the Current Grocery Inflation Rate?
The year-over-year rate peaked at 11.4% in Aug 2022. That was the worst single reading since the early 1980s food price crisis. It has since moderated to 3.0%. But "moderation" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. It means prices are still rising, just more slowly. The cumulative damage is still accumulating.
The pre-pandemic norm was roughly 1.6% annually. The current rate of 3.0% is still double that baseline and shows signs of re-acceleration after a brief plateau in late 2024. The drivers have shifted: early-2025 inflation was led by egg prices — a second avian influenza outbreak — and re-accelerating beef costs as the national cattle herd continues to contract.
Food CPI Year-Over-Year (%)
Source: BLS Food CPI (CUSR0000SAF1). Year-over-year percent change, monthly.
Full data: Food CPI indicator page
Which Food Categories Have Gone Up the Most?
The aggregate conceals wide variation, and the variation tells you something about how food inflation works. Protein categories — beef, eggs, poultry — experienced the largest shocks. But these weren't demand-driven. They were biological. Avian influenza destroyed commercial flocks. Drought forced herd liquidation. These are supply constraints that don't respond to interest rate policy. All figures are exact cumulative increases computed from BLS CPI sub-indices, with category rows fixed to January 2026 and the all-food-at-home composite row current through June 2026.
| Food Category | BLS Series | Cumulative Since Jan 2020 | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beef and veal | CUSR0000SEFC01 | +57.6% | Herd liquidation, drought, processing labor costs |
| Sugar and sweets | CUSR0000SEFR | +40.2% | Global sugar supply disruptions, energy costs in processing |
| Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs | CUSR0000SAF112 | +36.8% | Protein-wide supply constraints (avian flu, herd shrinkage) |
| Eggs | CUSR0000SEFH | +35.5% | Repeated avian influenza outbreaks (2022, 2024–2025) |
| Nonalcoholic beverages | CUSR0000SEFE | +35.5% | Input costs (sugar, coffee, packaging, transport) |
| Fruits and vegetables | CUSR0000SEFV | +35.0% | Labor costs, water constraints in western agriculture |
| Cereals and bakery products | CUSR0000SEFD | +26.3% | Wheat price shock (Ukraine war), energy costs in baking |
| Dairy and related products | CUSR0000SEFJ | +21.6% | Feed costs, supply chain disruptions |
| Fats and oils | CUSR0000SEFK | +18.0% | Global vegetable oil supply disruption |
| All food at home | CUSR0000SAF11 | +32.0% | BLS Food-at-Home composite (weighted average) |
Category rows: BLS Consumer Price Index, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to January 2026. The all-food-at-home composite row is current through June 2026. Sub-category increases do not average to the composite; each category uses a different expenditure weight in the BLS calculation. Ground beef specifically: +73.8% (BLS average price series APU0000703112, from $3.93/lb to $6.83/lb).
Are Wages Keeping Up With Grocery Prices?
Price increases only measure half the equation. The question that actually determines whether a household can absorb this is whether real wages have kept pace. The chart below shows the spread between average hourly earnings growth and Food CPI growth. When it's positive, wages are outpacing grocery prices. When it's negative, every paycheck buys less food than the one before.
During the 2022 shock, the gap reached roughly -6 percentage points — food prices rising six points faster per year than wages. The gap closed through 2023-2024 as wage growth caught up. But the cushion has been narrowing since mid-2025, with the spread now at just +0.5 percentage points — barely positive and trending in the wrong direction.
This narrowing is the mechanism the ADI tracks. When wages stop outpacing food costs, households draw down savings to maintain their grocery budget. That buffer depletion is the leading signal — and by the time it shows up in delinquency data, the damage has been compounding for quarters.
Wage-Grocery Price Spread (AHE YoY minus Food CPI YoY, percentage points)
Source: BLS Average Hourly Earnings (CES0500000003) via FRED and BLS Food CPI (CUSR0000SAF1). Computed spread.
Full data: The Grocery Gap indicator page
Why Grocery Prices Haven't Come Down
If inflation has "cooled," why are groceries still expensive? Because the inflation rate and the price level are different things. A 3.0% rate means prices are rising 3.0% per year on top of the prior 32.0% cumulative increase. Slowing inflation does not lower prices. For that, grocery costs would need to deflate significantly for multiple consecutive years — which has not happened.
Price Levels vs. Inflation Rates
The same arithmetic applies to every grocery item in the basket. A slower inflation rate is not a price cut: returning to January 2020 shelf prices would require outright grocery deflation from the current price level, which has not occurred in any major food category.
This is why "disinflation" (slowing price increases) does not feel like relief to households. The cumulative price level has been locked in, and every additional month of positive grocery inflation compresses household budgets further.
Read: How cost pressure leads to household financial distress →How Grocery Prices Connect to Household Financial Distress
The part that I think is underappreciated is how grocery inflation converts into financial distress. It doesn't happen all at once. It follows a sequence that the ADI's five domains were designed to track:
- Step 1: Grocery prices rise faster than wages — households cut discretionary spending and turn to food assistance programs like SNAP
- Step 2: Discretionary cuts are exhausted — households begin drawing down savings (Safety Net & Buffer)
- Step 3: Savings are depleted — households begin missing non-essential payments (credit cards, auto loans)
- Step 4: Debt falls behind — delinquency rates rise
- Step 5: Debt stress reaches secured debt — mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure risk increase
This mechanism is a hypothesis, not a fixed-lag result. Grocery inflation, the savings rate, and credit card and auto loan delinquency are separate aggregate series and do not identify the same households over time.
The Grocery Gap indicator (wage-food price spread at +0.5 percentage points) is a real-time read on whether this mechanism is still active. As the cushion narrows, the pressure on household finances increases.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are grocery prices going down in 2026?
No. Grocery prices continue to rise, just more slowly than during the 2022 peak. The current year-over-year rate is 3.0% as of 2026-06. The cumulative price level has not declined — every month of positive inflation adds to the total.
What food prices have gone up the most since 2020?
Among the category rows shown above, beef and veal has the largest January 2020 to January 2026 increase. Protein categories were hit by repeated avian influenza outbreaks, drought, herd liquidation, and processing labor constraints. Category rows are fixed to January 2026 so they are not mixed with the current all-food-at-home composite.
How do grocery prices compare to wage growth since 2020?
Wages have risen significantly since 2020, but food prices rose faster during 2021–2022 and again in 2025. The wage-grocery price spread is currently +0.5 percentage points — wages are barely outpacing grocery prices, and the cushion has been shrinking since early 2025. See the wage-CPI spread indicator for the full time series.
How much have grocery prices gone up since 2019?
Since January 2019, grocery prices have risen +33.1%. The BLS Food-at-Home CPI index (CUSR0000SAF11) was 241.581 in January 2019 and 243.511 in January 2020. The additional 0.8% from 2019 to the 2020 baseline is included before the current +32.0% January 2020-to-June 2026 cumulative reading.
What is the BLS CPI Food-at-Home index value for January 2020?
The BLS CPI Food-at-Home index (series CUSR0000SAF11, seasonally adjusted) was 243.511 in January 2020. This is the baseline used to calculate the +32.0% cumulative increase. The index uses a 1982–84 = 100 reference base.
Where does this grocery price data come from?
The cumulative price-level data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index for Food at Home (series CUSR0000SAF11), computed relative to January 2020. The year-over-year grocery inflation rate uses the BLS Food CPI (series CUSR0000SAF1), the same source as the full indicator page linked above.
Data Sources and Methodology
BLS Food-at-Home CPI (CUSR0000SAF11)
The primary series measuring prices for food purchased to prepare at home. Part of the BLS Consumer Price Index program. Monthly frequency. Used for the cumulative calculations on this page.
BLS Food CPI (CUSR0000SAF1)
The seasonally adjusted BLS series used for the year-over-year grocery inflation rate shown on this page.
BLS Average Hourly Earnings (CES0500000003)
Average hourly earnings for all private sector employees. Used to compute the wage-grocery price spread: if wage growth exceeds Food CPI growth, households have a nominal cushion. When the spread goes negative, purchasing power on food declines.
Cumulative Change Methodology
Cumulative change is computed as (current_index / jan_2020_index − 1) × 100. This gives the total percentage increase in prices since the January 2020 base period, compounding each month's increase. The raw index data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Food-at-Home CPI series.