Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation
Bottom-quartile wage growth minus CPI inflation
Where the Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation stands now
The Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation was 1.1 percentage points in 2025. Since 2000 it has ranged from -1.7 percentage points in 2011 to 3.9 percentage points in 2009. It has been lower than the year before for two straight years.
What it means for households: U.S. Cost of Living Statistics: Prices and Inflation Behind on Your Mortgage?
How the Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation has moved since 2000
Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation: down since 2020
Atlanta Fed 1st-quartile wage growth minus CPI-U inflation, yearly average, percentage points: 1.1 percentage points in 2025, down from 2.2 percentage points a year earlier. Annual, 2000–2025.
What the Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation measures
A lower gap is worse for households.
Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation by year, 2000 to 2025
| Year | Gap (pp) | Change from a year earlier (percentage points) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.1 | −1.1 |
| 2024 | 2.2 | −0.2 |
| 2023 | 2.4 | +3.3 |
| 2022 | −0.9 | −0.8 |
| 2021 | −0.1 | −3.3 |
| 2020 | 3.2 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 2.7 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 1.5 | −0.4 |
| 2017 | 1.9 | −0.7 |
| 2016 | 2.6 | −0.5 |
| 2015 | 3.1 | +2.6 |
| 2014 | 0.5 | +0.6 |
| 2013 | −0.1 | +0.8 |
| 2012 | −0.9 | +0.8 |
| 2011 | −1.7 | −2.3 |
| 2010 | 0.6 | −3.3 |
| 2009 | 3.9 | +3.2 |
| 2008 | 0.7 | −0.7 |
| 2007 | 1.4 | +0.8 |
| 2006 | 0.6 | +0.5 |
| 2005 | 0.1 | −0.4 |
| 2004 | 0.5 | −0.7 |
| 2003 | 1.2 | −2.1 |
| 2002 | 3.3 | +0.2 |
| 2001 | 3.1 | +0.8 |
| 2000 | 2.3 | — |
Annual · Computed from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Wage Growth Tracker and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index
Counties with the highest labor scores
There's no county figure for this measure, so this list uses the labor part of our County Distress Index.
| Rank | County | Score (0–100) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apache County, AZ | 99.2 |
| 2 | Mingo County, WV | 98.7 |
| 3 | Navajo County, AZ | 97.3 |
| 4 | Luna County, NM | 97.2 |
| 5 | McKinley County, NM | 96.8 |
| 6 | Lake County, CA | 96.8 |
| 7 | Clare County, MI | 96.6 |
| 8 | Harlan County, KY | 96.2 |
| 9 | Wyoming County, WV | 96.2 |
| 10 | Pike County, KY | 96.1 |
Questions about the Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation
Are low-wage workers' raises keeping up with inflation?
By this measure, in 2025 yes: median wage growth in the bottom wage quartile ran 1.1 percentage points ahead of CPI inflation. The measure covers matched wage earners in the bottom wage quartile and all-items urban prices, so it is a rough guide, not any one person's experience.
Does this measure compare low earners with high earners?
No. It is also tracked as The K-Shape, after the idea of a K-shaped economy in which different groups fare differently, but it measures only one arm of it: pay growth in the bottom wage quartile against prices. It does not include pay growth for top earners, so it cannot show a gap between low and high earners.
Where does this data come from?
The wage input is the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker for the bottom wage quartile (FRED series FRBATLWGT12MMUMHWGWD1WP), built from Current Population Survey data. The price input is the BLS Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (FRED series CPIAUCSL). American Default Research computes the monthly gaps and the yearly averages.
Sources and method for the Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation
- Computed from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Wage Growth Tracker and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index We use the annual figures as published, from 2000 through 2025, with no adjustment of our own. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s report (1) Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s report (2)
We write with assistance from AI tools. Figures come from the data and sources named on this page.