Most Changed Indicators
Which distress signals are moving fastest? Ranked by year-over-year change magnitude across 94 indicators.
Last built: 2026-03-31
Of the 94 indicators tracked by American Default Research, 53 support a year-over-year distress verdict. Of those, 36 are worsening and 17 are improving year-over-year. The other 25 move both ways or measure something other than household condition, so neither label applies. Another 16 are already rates of change or otherwise suppress movement verdicts; they remain tracked but do not enter either count. The American Distress Index currently reads 43.8, in its Typical band. On average, its inputs sit higher than in 44% of their own quarterly histories.
Fastest Worsening
Indicators where the year-over-year change is moving in the direction of greater household distress.
| # | Indicator | Current | YoY Change | YoY % | Component |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Grocery Gap Grocery Affordability Gap (AHE YoY minus Food CPI YoY) | 0.21 percentage points | -0.65 percentage points | -75.2% | Upstream Pressure |
| 2 | Wage Growth vs CPI Spread | 0.5 percentage points | -0.72 percentage points | -59.3% | Upstream Pressure |
| 3 | The Search Signal Google Search Interest: Financial Distress | 64.00 | +22.00 | +52.4% | Upstream Pressure |
| 4 | The Buffer Personal Saving Rate | 2.70% | -1.9 percentage points | -41.3% | Buffer Depletion |
| 5 | The Coverage Tax Auto Insurance Inflation Premium (Auto CPI minus Overall CPI) | 3.32 percentage points | +0.85 percentage points | +34.2% | Upstream Pressure |
| 6 | The Pump Tax Gas Affordability Ratio | 1.11% | +0.28 percentage points | +33.7% | Upstream Pressure |
| 7 | The Tech Drought Information Sector Job Openings (NAICS 51) | 90K | -33.00K | -26.8% | AI Workforce |
| 8 | The Cannibalization Rate Vanguard Hardship Withdrawal Rate | 6.00% | +1.2 percentage points | +25.0% | Buffer Depletion |
| 9 | Student Loan Borrowers Behind on Payments or in Collections | 20.00% | +4 percentage points | +25.0% | Upstream Pressure |
| 10 | The Spread States with Credit Card Delinquency Above 10% | 36 | +7.00 | +24.1% | Demographics |
| 11 | The Mood Ring University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | 49.50 | -11.20 | -18.5% | Upstream Pressure |
| 12 | Annual Homelessness Assessment (PIT Count) | 771,480 | +118376.00 | +18.1% | Demographics |
| 13 | The Energy Squeeze Energy Cost Burden (Energy PCE as % of Disposable Income) | 3.75% | +0.43 percentage points | +13.1% | Upstream Pressure |
| 14 | Grocery Prices Cumulative Change Since Jan 2020 | 31.91% | +3.38 percentage points | +11.8% | Upstream Pressure |
| 15 | The FHA Signal FHA Mortgage Delinquency Rate | 11.79% | +1.22 percentage points | +11.5% | Debt Stress |
Fastest Improving
Indicators where the year-over-year change is moving toward less household distress.
| # | Indicator | Current | YoY Change | YoY % | Component |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Healthcare Inflation Premium (Medical CPI minus Overall CPI) | -1.6 percentage points | -1.67 percentage points | -2449.9% | Upstream Pressure |
| 2 | Senior Loan Officer Survey: Banks Tightening Standards | 6.70% | -3.7 percentage points | -35.6% | Upstream Pressure |
| 3 | Youth Unemployment Rate (16-24) | 8.50% | -1.5 percentage points | -15.0% | AI Workforce |
| 4 | Charge-Off Rate on Credit Card Loans | 3.84% | -0.62 percentage points | -13.9% | Debt Stress |
| 5 | Charge-Off Rate on All Loans | 0.57% | -0.07 percentage points | -10.9% | Legal Filings |
| 6 | The Other Banks Credit Card Delinquency Rate — Banks Outside Top 100 | 6.43% | -0.75 percentage points | -10.4% | Debt Stress |
| 7 | Unbanked / Underbanked Household Rate | 4.20% | -0.3 percentage points | -6.7% | Demographics |
| 8 | The Skip Rate Philadelphia Fed LIFE Bill-Payment Coping Strategy | 17.40% | -0.9 percentage points | -4.9% | Demographics |
| 9 | The Late Fee Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans | 2.92% | -0.14 percentage points | -4.6% | Debt Stress |
| 10 | Delinquency Rate on Consumer Loans (ex credit card) | 2.28% | -0.1 percentage points | -4.2% | Debt Stress |
| 11 | Initial Unemployment Claims (SA) | 206,000 | -6000.00 | -2.8% | Labor Market |
| 12 | Revolving Credit Utilization (75th Percentile) | 50.47% | -1.2 percentage points | -2.3% | Buffer Depletion |
| 13 | The Median Check Real Median Weekly Earnings | $378 | +$5.00 | +1.3% | AI Workforce |
| 14 | The Card Tax Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans | 20.94% | -0.22 percentage points | -1.0% | Upstream Pressure |
| 15 | The Warning Light Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index | 74.70 | +0.30 | +0.4% | Upstream Pressure |
What This Tells Us
The balance between worsening and improving indicators provides a quick pulse check on household financial conditions. When the majority of indicators are worsening, it signals broadening distress — not just isolated pockets.
The American Distress Index distills the national picture into a single composite score. It currently reads 43.8, in its Typical band. On average, its inputs sit higher than in 44% of their own quarterly histories. View the full ADI breakdown →
How This Page Works
This page is auto-generated at build time. It reads every indicator JSON file, computes
year-over-year changes (or period-over-period for indicators with less than a year of history),
and ranks them by the absolute magnitude of percentage change. "Worsening" and "improving"
are determined by each indicator's direction field — for most distress indicators,
an increase is worsening.
Two of the four direction values carry no distress pole:
bidirectional for a series that genuinely moves both ways, and
not_applicable for a series that measures something other than household
condition. Those 25 indicators are ranked and tracked, but they appear in
neither table and are excluded from the worsening and improving counts above.
A further 16 indicators carry trend_suppressed. Their current
levels may still have a distress direction, but their recent movement is unsafe to classify
because the stored value is already a rate of change, the series crosses a break, the
observation spacing violates its declared frequency, or the count history is too sparse.
They appear in neither table.
Indicators with annual frequency compare to the prior year. Quarterly indicators compare to the same quarter last year. Monthly indicators compare to the same month last year.
Frequently Asked Questions
How are the 'most changed' indicators calculated?
Each indicator is ranked by the absolute magnitude of its year-over-year percentage change. Worsening vs. improving is determined by the indicator's direction — for 'higher is worse' indicators like delinquency rates, an increase is worsening. For 'lower is worse' indicators like the savings rate, a decrease is worsening. Indicators with no distress direction, and indicators whose metadata marks the recent movement as unsafe to interpret, appear in neither table.
How often is this page updated?
This page regenerates automatically every time the site builds, which happens whenever new data arrives via the automated FRED, BLS, or press release parsing pipelines. Most indicators update monthly or quarterly.
What does the American Distress Index currently show?
The ADI currently reads 43.8, in its Typical band. On average, its inputs sit higher than in 44% of their own quarterly histories. The index is built from five domains: Delinquency, Default & Legal, Debt Burden, Labor, and Safety Net & Buffer.
Why do some indicators show large percentage changes?
Indicators measured in small absolute numbers (like percentage-point spreads or ratios near zero) can show large percentage changes from small absolute movements. The absolute change column provides context alongside the percentage change.
Can I track a specific indicator over time?
Yes. Click any indicator name to see its full detail page with historical chart, data table, year-over-year changes, editorial context, and related signals.