Of the 95 indicators tracked by American Default Research, 53 support a year-over-year distress verdict. Of those, 35 are worsening and 18 are improving year-over-year. The other 27 move both ways or measure something other than household condition, so neither label applies. Another 15 are already rates of change or otherwise suppress movement verdicts; they remain tracked but do not enter either count. The American Distress Index currently reads 43.8, in its Typical band. On average, its inputs sit higher than in 44% of their own quarterly histories.

Indicators Tracked
95
by American Default Research
Worsening YoY
35
66.0% of the 53 directionally-oriented indicators
Improving YoY
18
34.0% of the 53 directionally-oriented indicators

Fastest Worsening

Indicators where the year-over-year change is moving in the direction of greater household distress.

# Indicator Current YoY Change YoY % Component
1 Wage Growth vs CPI Spread 0.84 pts -0.99 pp -54.1% Upstream Pressure
2 The Search Signal Google Search Interest: Financial Distress 64.00 +22.00 +52.4% Upstream Pressure
3 The Grocery Gap Grocery Affordability Gap (AHE YoY minus Food CPI YoY) 0.53 pts -0.56 pp -51.0% Upstream Pressure
4 The Buffer Personal Saving Rate 2.70% -1.90 pp -41.3% Buffer Depletion
5 The Pump Tax Gas Affordability Ratio 1.11% +0.28 pp +33.7% Upstream Pressure
6 Student Loan Delinquency Rate (90+ days) 10.34% +2.60 pp +33.5% Debt Stress
7 The Coverage Tax Auto Insurance Inflation Premium (Auto CPI minus Overall CPI) 3.57 pts +0.82 pp +30.0% Upstream Pressure
8 The Tech Drought Information Sector Job Openings (NAICS 51) 90K -33.00K -26.8% AI Workforce
9 The Cannibalization Rate Vanguard Hardship Withdrawal Rate 6.00% +1.20 pp +25.0% Buffer Depletion
10 Student Loan Borrowers Behind on Payments or in Collections 20.00% +4.00 pp +25.0% Upstream Pressure
11 The Spread States with Credit Card Delinquency Above 10% 36 +7.00 +24.1% Demographics
12 The Mood Ring University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 49.50 -11.20 -18.5% Upstream Pressure
13 Serious Delinquency Rate (90+ days, All Loan Types) 3.36% +0.52 pp +18.1% Debt Stress
14 Annual Homelessness Assessment (PIT Count) 771,480 +118376.00 +18.1% Demographics
15 Grocery Prices Cumulative Change Since Jan 2020 32.00% +3.75 pp +13.3% Upstream Pressure

Fastest Improving

Indicators where the year-over-year change is moving toward less household distress.

# Indicator Current YoY Change YoY % Component
1 Healthcare Inflation Premium (Medical CPI minus Overall CPI) -1.44 pts -1.52 pp -1829.0% Upstream Pressure
2 Senior Loan Officer Survey: Banks Tightening Standards 6.70% -3.70 pp -35.6% Upstream Pressure
3 Charge-Off Rate on Credit Card Loans 3.84% -0.62 pp -13.9% Debt Stress
4 Charge-Off Rate on All Loans 0.57% -0.07 pp -10.9% Legal Filings
5 The Other Banks Credit Card Delinquency Rate — Banks Outside Top 100 6.43% -0.75 pp -10.4% Debt Stress
6 Unbanked / Underbanked Household Rate 4.20% -0.30 pp -6.7% Demographics
7 Youth Unemployment Rate (16-24) 9.20% -0.50 pp -5.2% AI Workforce
8 The Skip Rate Share of Adults Skipping Bill Payments 17.40% -0.90 pp -4.9% Demographics
9 The Late Fee Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans 2.92% -0.14 pp -4.6% Debt Stress
10 Delinquency Rate on Consumer Loans (ex credit card) 2.28% -0.10 pp -4.2% Debt Stress
11 Unemployment Rate 4.20% -0.10 pp -2.3% Labor Market
12 Revolving Credit Utilization (75th Percentile) 50.47% -1.20 pp -2.3% Buffer Depletion
13 The Median Check Real Median Weekly Earnings $378 +$5.00 +1.3% AI Workforce
14 The Card Tax Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans 20.94% -0.22 pp -1.0% Upstream Pressure
15 Initial Unemployment Claims (SA) 197,000 -2000.00 -1.0% Labor Market

What This Tells Us

The balance between worsening and improving indicators provides a quick pulse check on household financial conditions. When the majority of indicators are worsening, it signals broadening distress — not just isolated pockets.

The American Distress Index distills the national picture into a single composite score. It currently reads 43.8, in its Typical band. On average, its inputs sit higher than in 44% of their own quarterly histories. View the full ADI breakdown →

How This Page Works

This page is auto-generated at build time. It reads every indicator JSON file, computes year-over-year changes (or period-over-period for indicators with less than a year of history), and ranks them by the absolute magnitude of percentage change. "Worsening" and "improving" are determined by each indicator's direction field — for most distress indicators, an increase is worsening.

Two of the four direction values carry no distress pole: bidirectional for a series that genuinely moves both ways, and not_applicable for a series that measures something other than household condition. Those 27 indicators are ranked and tracked, but they appear in neither table and are excluded from the worsening and improving counts above.

A further 15 indicators carry trend_suppressed. Their current levels may still have a distress direction, but their recent movement is unsafe to classify because the stored value is already a rate of change, the series crosses a break, the observation spacing violates its declared frequency, or the count history is too sparse. They appear in neither table.

Indicators with annual frequency compare to the prior year. Quarterly indicators compare to the same quarter last year. Monthly indicators compare to the same month last year.

Frequently Asked Questions

How are the 'most changed' indicators calculated?

Each indicator is ranked by the absolute magnitude of its year-over-year percentage change. Worsening vs. improving is determined by the indicator's direction — for 'higher is worse' indicators like delinquency rates, an increase is worsening. For 'lower is worse' indicators like the savings rate, a decrease is worsening. Indicators with no distress direction, and indicators whose metadata marks the recent movement as unsafe to interpret, appear in neither table.

How often is this page updated?

This page regenerates automatically every time the site builds, which happens whenever new data arrives via the automated FRED, BLS, or press release parsing pipelines. Most indicators update monthly or quarterly.

What does the American Distress Index currently show?

The ADI currently reads 43.8, in its Typical band. On average, its inputs sit higher than in 44% of their own quarterly histories. The index is built from five domains: Delinquency, Default & Legal, Debt Burden, Labor, and Safety Net & Buffer.

Why do some indicators show large percentage changes?

Indicators measured in small absolute numbers (like percentage-point spreads or ratios near zero) can show large percentage changes from small absolute movements. The absolute change column provides context alongside the percentage change.

Can I track a specific indicator over time?

Yes. Click any indicator name to see its full detail page with historical chart, data table, year-over-year changes, editorial context, and related signals.

🛟
If this affects you, we can help. Get a free action plan · Call (307) 264-2992 Find help near you · Browse the Glossary Prefer a nonprofit? HUD-approved housing counselors offer free foreclosure-prevention counseling (1-800-569-4287).