The FHA Signal Thesis, Reframed
The borrower split still matters: stress tends to appear first where household cash buffers are thinnest.
This thesis page was revised after the index-family cutover because the earlier version joined changing ADI primitives to a retired engine. The borrower split remains the question: stress tends to show up first where buffers are thinnest. The public ADI framing is narrower.
The family ADI retired the old component weights. It averages five equal-weighted domains after ranking each input inside its own quarterly history. FHA delinquency is supporting mortgage context outside the national composite weight set.
The ADI reference page publishes the maintained national reading with its required band gloss. The score is a mean of input percentiles, and quarter-rank context comes from the separate rank-in-history field.
For source data, use The FHA Signal and the ADI methodology.
Refresh Trace
2026-07-30| Co-moving indicator | Source | Period | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment | USDA Food and Nutrition Service | 2026-04 | -287175 |
| Continued Unemployment Claims (SA) | DOL via FRED | 2026-07-18 | -14000 |
| Initial Unemployment Claims (SA) | DOL via FRED | 2026-07-25 | +10000 |
| Median Sales Price of Houses Sold (US) | Census via FRED | 2026-Q2 | +7500.00 |
| Total Revolving Credit Outstanding | Federal Reserve via FRED | 2026-05 | -4480.51 |
Ross Kilburn has spent over two decades working directly with financially distressed American households — from negotiating more than 1,000 short sales during the Great Recession to generating leads for a foreclosure defense law firm today. He is the author of The Complete Guide to Short Sales and the founder of American Default Research. Full bio →
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