The Two-Economy Problem After the Cutover
Aggregate credit data and borrower-level stress can point in different directions. The family rebuild changes the index language, not that measurement problem.
The two-economy argument is still a measurement argument. Aggregate credit series can improve while stress remains concentrated among thinner-buffer borrowers and smaller lender channels. The earlier page attached that argument to retired ADI component labels, so this version removes that language.
The family-v1 ADI separates delinquency, default and legal stress, debt burden, labor, and safety-net buffers into equal domains. The method reports condition readings by ranking each input inside its own history.
The ADI reference page publishes the canonical national time-series reading. Geography surfaces use ranks and fifths instead of national band labels.
For source credit data, use the credit card delinquency, auto delinquency, and FHA delinquency indicator pages.
Refresh Trace
2026-06-12| Co-moving indicator | Source | Period | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFPB Consumer Complaint Volume | Consumer Financial Protection Bureau | 2026-05 | +33131 |
| Continued Unemployment Claims (SA) | DOL via FRED | 2026-05-30 | +18000 |
| Total Consumer Credit Outstanding | Federal Reserve via FRED | 2026-04 | +12549.92 |
| Total Revolving Credit Outstanding | Federal Reserve via FRED | 2026-04 | +11700.88 |
| Initial Unemployment Claims (SA) | DOL via FRED | 2026-06-06 | +4000 |
Ross Kilburn has spent over two decades working directly with financially distressed American households — from negotiating more than 1,000 short sales during the Great Recession to generating leads for a foreclosure defense law firm today. He is the author of The Complete Guide to Short Sales and the founder of American Default Research. Full bio →
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