How Much Have Grocery Prices Gone Up Since 2020?
A 32.7% increase in five years, with no reversal in sight. The grocery inflation shock peaked in 2022, but the price level has been permanently reset — and the gap between food costs and wages is narrowing again. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, updated monthly.
Last updated: 2026-03-22
How Much Have Grocery Prices Increased Since 2020?
Grocery prices have risen 32.7% since January 2020, according to the BLS Food-at-Home Consumer Price Index (series CUSR0000SAF1). The raw index rose from 261.293 in January 2020 to 345.271 in 2026-02. The year-over-year rate is 3.3% — more than double the pre-pandemic norm of approximately 1.6%. Since January 2019, the cumulative increase is even steeper: +34.6% (from an index of 256.533).
This was not a transient shock. It took three years to accumulate to +22%, then added another 10 percentage points through 2024-2025. Each month of positive inflation compounds onto the prior increase — and for households already falling behind on bills, the grocery line item alone can tip the balance. For prices to return to 2020 levels, grocery deflation would need to run for years — a scenario that has not materialized in any major food category.
BLS CPI Food-at-Home Index Values (CUSR0000SAF1)
The raw index values researchers look for, directly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Series CUSR0000SAF1 (seasonally adjusted). The index uses a 1982–84 = 100 reference base. A value of 345.271 means food-at-home prices are 3.45× higher than the 1982–84 average. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index.
Key Statistics at a Glance
The American Distress Index currently reads 59.0 (Elevated). Grocery inflation feeds the ADI's Cost Pressure component — which measures whether essential costs are outpacing wages. When food-at-home prices rise faster than earnings, households must either cut spending elsewhere or draw down savings buffers. That buffer depletion is the leading indicator the ADI tracks. For the full cost picture beyond groceries — including auto insurance, healthcare, and shelter inflation — see the cost of living roundup.
Cumulative Grocery Price Increase Since January 2020
The chart below shows the cumulative percentage change in food-at-home prices since January 2020. Cumulative change — not year-over-year — is the metric that matches household experience. When the YoY rate falls from 11% to 3%, headlines report "cooling inflation." But the family buying groceries is paying 32% more than they did five years ago. The cumulative view shows the total burden.
January 2019: −1.8% (below 2020 baseline) | January 2021: +3.8% | January 2022: +11.0% | January 2023: +22.2% | January 2024: +25.3% | January 2025: +28.4% | January 2026: +32.7% | Since January 2019: +34.6%
Cumulative Food-at-Home Price Increase Since Jan 2020 (%)
Source: BLS Food-at-Home CPI (CUSR0000SAF1), computed cumulative change from Jan 2020 base.
Full data: Grocery Prices Cumulative indicator page
Year-Over-Year Grocery Inflation Rate
The year-over-year rate peaked at 11.4% in Aug 2022 — the worst single reading since the early 1980s food price crisis. It has since moderated to 3.3%, but "moderation" means prices are still rising, just more slowly.
The pre-pandemic norm was roughly 1.6% annually. The current rate of 3.3% is still double that baseline and shows signs of re-acceleration after a brief plateau in late 2024. The drivers have shifted: early-2025 inflation was led by egg prices — a second avian influenza outbreak — and re-accelerating beef costs as the national cattle herd continues to contract.
Food-at-Home Inflation Rate Year-Over-Year (%)
Source: BLS Food and Beverages CPI (CUSR0000SAF1). Year-over-year percent change, monthly.
Full data: Food and Beverages CPI indicator page
Price Increases by Food Category Since January 2020
The aggregate conceals wide variation. Protein categories — beef, eggs, poultry — experienced the largest shocks, driven by biological supply disruptions (avian influenza) and structural supply constraints (drought, herd liquidation). All figures are exact cumulative increases computed from BLS CPI sub-indices, January 2020 to January 2026.
| Food Category | BLS Series | Cumulative Since Jan 2020 | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beef and veal | CUSR0000SEFC01 | +57.6% | Herd liquidation, drought, processing labor costs |
| Sugar and sweets | CUSR0000SEFR | +40.2% | Global sugar supply disruptions, energy costs in processing |
| Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs | CUSR0000SAF112 | +36.8% | Protein-wide supply constraints (avian flu, herd shrinkage) |
| Eggs | CUSR0000SEFH | +35.5% | Repeated avian influenza outbreaks (2022, 2024–2025) |
| Nonalcoholic beverages | CUSR0000SEFE | +35.5% | Input costs (sugar, coffee, packaging, transport) |
| Fruits and vegetables | CUSR0000SEFV | +35.0% | Labor costs, water constraints in western agriculture |
| Cereals and bakery products | CUSR0000SEFD | +26.3% | Wheat price shock (Ukraine war), energy costs in baking |
| Dairy and related products | CUSR0000SEFJ | +21.6% | Feed costs, supply chain disruptions |
| Fats and oils | CUSR0000SEFK | +18.0% | Global vegetable oil supply disruption |
| All food at home | CUSR0000SAF1 | +32.7% | BLS Food-at-Home composite (weighted average) |
All figures: BLS Consumer Price Index, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to January 2026. Sub-category increases do not average to the composite — each category uses a different expenditure weight in the BLS calculation. Ground beef specifically: +73.8% (BLS average price series APU0000703112, from $3.93/lb to $6.83/lb).
The Grocery Affordability Gap: Wages vs. Food Prices
Price increases only measure half the equation. The affordability question is whether real wages have kept pace. The chart below shows the spread between average hourly earnings growth and food-at-home CPI growth. Positive means wages are outpacing grocery prices; negative means purchasing power on food is declining.
During the 2022 shock, the gap reached -6 percentage points — food prices rising six points faster per year than wages. The gap closed through 2023-2024 as wage growth caught up. But the cushion has been narrowing since mid-2025, with the spread now at just +0.5 percentage points — barely positive and trending in the wrong direction.
This narrowing is the mechanism the ADI tracks. When wages stop outpacing food costs, households draw down savings to maintain their grocery budget. That buffer depletion is the leading signal — and by the time it shows up in delinquency data, the damage has been compounding for quarters.
Wage-Grocery Price Spread (AHE YoY minus Food-at-Home CPI YoY, percentage points)
Source: BLS Average Hourly Earnings (CES0500000003) and Food-at-Home CPI (CUSR0000SAF1) via FRED. Computed spread.
Full data: The Grocery Gap indicator page
Why Grocery Prices Haven't Come Down
If inflation has "cooled," why are groceries still expensive? Because the inflation rate and the price level are different things. A 3% rate means prices are rising 3% per year on top of the prior 32% cumulative increase. Slowing inflation does not lower prices. For that, grocery costs would need to deflate significantly for multiple consecutive years — which has not happened.
Price Levels vs. Inflation Rates
If a gallon of milk cost $3.00 in January 2020 and food prices have risen 32% since then, that same gallon costs roughly $3.96 today. For it to return to $3.00, prices would need to fall 24% from current levels — which has not occurred in any major food category.
This is why "disinflation" (slowing price increases) does not feel like relief to households. The cumulative price level has been locked in, and every additional month of positive grocery inflation compresses household budgets further.
Read: How cost pressure leads to household financial distress →How Grocery Prices Connect to Household Financial Distress
Grocery inflation feeds the ADI's Cost Pressure component, one of five factors in the composite score. The transmission mechanism runs through household budgets in a predictable sequence:
- Step 1: Grocery prices rise faster than wages — households cut discretionary spending to compensate
- Step 2: Discretionary cuts are exhausted — households begin drawing down savings (Buffer Depletion)
- Step 3: Savings are depleted — households begin missing non-essential payments (credit cards, auto loans)
- Step 4: Debt falls behind — delinquency rates rise (Debt Stress component)
- Step 5: Debt stress reaches secured debt — mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure risk increase
The ADI's leading indicator thesis — that Buffer Depletion leads Debt Stress by approximately 9 quarters — is grounded in this mechanism. Persistent grocery price inflation in 2022 contributed to the savings rate collapse that is now feeding through into elevated credit card and auto loan delinquency.
The Grocery Gap indicator (wage-food price spread at +0.5 percentage points) is a real-time read on whether this mechanism is still active. As the cushion narrows, the pressure on household finances increases.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are grocery prices going down in 2026?
No. Grocery prices continue to rise, just more slowly than during the 2022 peak. The current year-over-year rate is 3.3% as of 2026-02. The cumulative price level has not declined — every month of positive inflation adds to the total.
What food prices have gone up the most since 2020?
Eggs have experienced the largest increase — up an estimated 60–80%+ cumulatively, driven by repeated avian influenza outbreaks that destroyed large portions of commercial egg-laying flocks in 2022 and again in 2024–2025. Beef, fats and oils, and cereals follow.
How do grocery prices compare to wage growth since 2020?
Wages have risen significantly since 2020, but food prices rose faster during 2021–2022 and again in 2025. The wage-grocery price spread is currently +0.5 percentage points — wages are barely outpacing grocery prices, and the cushion has been shrinking since early 2025. See the wage-CPI spread indicator for the full time series.
How much have grocery prices gone up since 2019?
Since January 2019, grocery prices have risen 34.6%. The BLS Food-at-Home CPI index (CUSR0000SAF1) was 256.533 in January 2019, compared to 345.271 in January 2026. The additional ~2.5% from 2019 to 2020 baseline reflects modest pre-pandemic food inflation before the surge began.
What is the BLS CPI Food-at-Home index value for January 2020?
The BLS CPI Food-at-Home index (series CUSR0000SAF1, seasonally adjusted) was 261.293 in January 2020. This is the baseline used to calculate the +32.7% cumulative increase. The index uses a 1982–84 = 100 reference base, meaning food-at-home prices are now roughly 3.45 times higher than the early 1980s average.
Where does this grocery price data come from?
All data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index for Food at Home (series CUSR0000SAF1). The cumulative change is computed relative to January 2020. The year-over-year rate is the standard BLS 12-month percent change.
Data Sources and Methodology
BLS Food-at-Home CPI (CUSR0000SAF1)
The primary series measuring prices for food purchased to prepare at home. Part of the BLS Consumer Price Index program. Monthly frequency. Used for both the year-over-year and cumulative calculations on this page.
BLS Average Hourly Earnings (CES0500000003)
Average hourly earnings for all private sector employees. Used to compute the wage-grocery price spread: if wage growth exceeds food-at-home CPI growth, households have a nominal cushion. When the spread goes negative, purchasing power on food declines.
Cumulative Change Methodology
Cumulative change is computed as (current_index / jan_2020_index − 1) × 100. This gives the total percentage increase in prices since the January 2020 base period, compounding each month's increase. All data retrieved via FRED API.