American Distress Index
2025-Q4 · Updated Mar 22, 2026
Household financial stress is above the 2015–2024 baseline. Savings buffers are thinning and debt burdens are rising, though conditions have not yet reached pre-crisis severity.
Score Zones
The ADI is built from five statistically derived components, each capturing a distinct dimension of household financial distress. See the full methodology for how component weights were determined.
What Goes Into the Number
Historical Backtest
The ADI backtest runs from 2005 to the present. The index enters the Crisis zone during the 2008 financial crisis and transitions down through 2010-2012, validating the methodology against the most significant household financial crisis in modern history. Read the leading indicator analysis or see the latest quarterly narrative update.
The American Distress Index
Source: FRED, Chicago Fed, BLS, Atlanta Fed. Methodology: Z-score normalization, 2015-2024 baseline, 95th percentile winsorization. Five components: Buffer Depletion (30%), Debt Stress (25%), Financial Conditions (15%), Cost Pressure (15%), Labor Market (15%).
How to Read the ADI
Is 50 bad?
50 is the center of the scale — it means household financial stress is roughly at the 2015–2024 baseline average. Below 50 is better than average; above 50 means stress is elevated. The further from 50, the more significant the deviation. Want to see where you stand? Try the Exposure Check.
How often does it update?
The composite ADI updates quarterly, as most underlying federal data sources release on a quarterly schedule. Individual indicators update on their own cadence — some monthly, some quarterly. Check the data status page for current freshness.
Does the ADI predict anything?
The ADI tracks what is, not what will be. However, the Buffer Depletion component (savings rate, debt service) has a validated leading indicator relationship — it preceded Debt Stress by 9 quarters with r=0.69 correlation before the 2008 crisis. This is why Buffer Depletion carries the highest weight. See the leading indicator analysis.
Where does the data come from?
All data comes from federal sources: the Federal Reserve (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed, and U.S. Courts. No proprietary data, no paywalls. The methodology page documents every series, weight, and calculation.
What are the individual indicators?
The five ADI components are built from specific economic indicators — savings rates, delinquency rates, credit conditions, inflation spreads, and unemployment claims. You can explore every indicator, its history, and its current value on the indicators page, or see which signals are moving fastest on the most changed indicators page. The ADI What-If Calculator lets you adjust component Z-scores and see how the composite score changes.
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