Use Our Data

Data Downloads

All downloads are CSV format, generated at build time from the same data that powers the site. Updated automatically when new data arrives.

All Indicators — Latest Values

96 indicators with current value, trend, YoY change, component, and source. One row per indicator.

State Debt & Delinquency

51 rows (50 states + DC) with credit card delinquency, auto loan delinquency, mortgage delinquency, total debt per capita, and credit card balance per capita.

Individual Indicator Time Series

Full historical data for any indicator. Each CSV includes date, value, and year-over-year change. Available from every indicator page or via /api/downloads/{slug}.csv.

JSON API

Static JSON endpoints generated at build time. No authentication required. CORS headers allow cross-origin requests from any domain.

GET

/api/adi.json

Current ADI composite score, zone classification, component Z-scores, and full quarterly history back to 2005.

curl https://americandefault.org/api/adi.json

Example response

{
  "meta": {
    "description": "American Distress Index...",
    "attribution": "American Default (americandefault.org)"
  },
  "current": {
    "date": "2025-09-28",
    "score": 57.12,
    "zone": "Elevated",
    "components": {
      "buffer_depletion": { "z_score": 0.569, "weight": 0.30 },
      "debt_stress": { "z_score": 0.185, "weight": 0.25 },
      "financial_conditions": { "z_score": 0.607, "weight": 0.15 },
      "cost_pressure": { "z_score": 0.149, "weight": 0.15 },
      "labor_market": { "z_score": 0.025, "weight": 0.15 }
    }
  },
  "history": [ ... ]
}

GET

/api/indicators.json

All 96 indicators with current value, trend direction, units, source, last updated date, and page URL.

curl https://americandefault.org/api/indicators.json

GET

/api/indicators/{slug}.json

Full time series for a single indicator. Includes all historical data points, metadata, and editorial context.

curl https://americandefault.org/api/indicators/the-fha-signal.json

Replace {slug} with any indicator's URL slug. Find all slugs in the indicators index or on the indicators catalog page.

Embeddable Charts

Every indicator has a standalone embeddable chart. Drop the iframe into any CMS, blog post, or news article. Charts are responsive, load from CDN, and render with no external dependencies.

 <iframe src="https://americandefault.org/embed/fha-delinquency/" width="100%" height="420" frameborder="0"></iframe> 

The embed URL pattern is /embed/{slug}/. Every indicator page has a one-click "Embed" button that generates the snippet.

FHA Delinquency Rate

/embed/fha-delinquency/

Personal Savings Rate

/embed/savings-rate/

Credit Card Delinquency

/embed/credit-card-delinquency/

ADI Composite Score

/embed/adi/

All 96 indicators have embed pages. Browse the full list at Indicators.

Cite This Data

Select any indicator to generate a formatted citation. Every indicator also has downloadable BibTeX and RIS files for import into reference managers (Zotero, Mendeley, EndNote, etc.).

Select an indicator:

Download .bib Download .ris

For bulk citations, download the ADI composite BibTeX or use the individual indicator .bib/.ris files. The "Cite" button on every indicator page also provides formatted citations.

Pre-Built Story Angles

Each angle below comes with original analysis, supporting data, and embeddable charts. Use as a starting point for your own reporting. For county-level data packages, see our county story kits — pre-built story packages for all 3,144 U.S. counties.

The 9-Quarter Warning Signal

Buffer depletion — falling savings, rising hardship withdrawals — preceded the 2008 mortgage crisis by 9 quarters with r=0.69 correlation. The same pattern is active now: Buffer Z hit +0.57 in Q3 2025 while Debt Stress Z remains 0.19. If the historical lag holds, debt performance should deteriorate by late 2027.

Full analysis Savings rate data Hardship withdrawal data

The Two-Economy Problem

Headline averages mask a K-shaped divergence. FHA mortgage delinquency is 11.52% — 6.5 times the conventional rate. Small-bank credit card delinquency is 2.3x the big-bank rate. Auto delinquency hit a 15-year high. The distress is concentrated among lower-income borrowers while aggregate figures remain moderate.

Full analysis FHA delinquency data Default rate comparison

Retirement as Emergency Fund

Vanguard reports 6.0% of 401(k) participants took hardship withdrawals in 2025 — triple the 2.0% rate in 2019. Before the last crisis, hardship withdrawals rose from 1.5% to 2.8% and mortgage delinquency followed 18-24 months later. Americans are depleting long-term savings to cover short-term bills.

Full analysis Hardship withdrawal data Savings statistics

The FHA Signal

FHA delinquency has risen for 8 consecutive quarters while conventional loans hold at 1.78%. The 6.5x ratio between FHA and conventional exceeds the 5.8x ratio observed in 2007 before conventional loans deteriorated. FHA borrowers are the canary — median income under $50K, 3.5% down payment, concentrated in economically vulnerable regions.

Full analysis FHA time series Mortgage delinquency stats

AI Displacement and Default Risk

AI task capability is doubling every 4.3 months (METR). Challenger reports 108,400 AI-attributed job cuts through 2025. The demographics of AI-exposed occupations — $30K-55K income, service-sector, less formal education — overlap heavily with FHA borrowers and subprime credit card holders. The AI workforce displacement index (AWI) reads 83.0 (Crisis) while the ADI reads 57.1 (Elevated). The gap represents the displacement-to-default lag.

Full analysis AI capability data AI layoff data

State-Level Divergence

Mississippi's credit card delinquency is 5.48%; Utah's is 2.28%. State-level data reveals geographic concentration of financial distress that national figures obscure. We publish 51 state profiles with 5 metrics each, plus foreclosure law guides for all 50 states.

State debt comparison All state profiles Foreclosure law guides

Attribution & Citation

How to cite

For the ADI composite score:

American Distress Index, americandefault.org

For individual indicator data:

[Source Agency], [Series Name], via American Default (americandefault.org)

For original analysis:

Ross Kilburn, "[Article Title]," American Default, [Date]. americandefault.org/analysis/[slug]/

Rules of use

The ADI composite score, component analysis, and all editorial content are original work by American Default
Underlying raw data comes from federal sources — cite the original agency when referencing specific government statistics
We do not make predictions. The ADI tracks current conditions, not forecasts. Do not frame ADI readings as predictions in your reporting
All data is free to use. No permission required beyond attribution. No commercial restrictions
Charts, embeds, and API data may be used in any publication or platform

Questions about appropriate citation? Email press@americandefault.org.

About the Project

What We Track

U.S. household financial distress across 96 economic indicators

The ADI

A composite 0-100 score built from five statistically derived components: buffer depletion, debt stress, financial conditions, cost pressure, and labor market strain

Data Sources

Federal Reserve (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics, NY Fed, MBA, ATTOM, Vanguard, U.S. Courts, Census Bureau, METR

Coverage

96 national indicators, 245 glossary terms, 51 state profiles, 50 state foreclosure law guides, 15 statistics roundups, 12 original analysis articles

Independence

No advertising, no paywalls, no political affiliation. All methodology is transparent and published at /methodology/.

Launched

2026

Media Contact

Ross Kilburn

Founder & Lead Analyst

press@americandefault.org

We respond to all press inquiries within 24 hours. Available for interviews, data commentary, background briefings, and custom data pulls for your reporting.

Key Pages

ADI Score

Current composite reading and zone classification

Methodology

Components, weights, baseline, and backtest validation

All Indicators

96 indicators with charts, data tables, and trend analysis

Analysis

Original research on distress patterns and leading indicators

Statistics

15 topic roundups: default rates, savings, debt by state, and more

Glossary

245 defined terms covering foreclosure, bankruptcy, debt, and consumer finance

Ross Kilburn

Background on the founder and lead analyst

ADI One-Pager

Print-friendly summary: score, components, headline stats, and data access

ADI One-Pager (PDF)

Downloadable PDF for email attachments and press pitches

Boilerplate

American Default is an independent, nonpartisan data project that tracks U.S. household financial distress. Its flagship product, the American Distress Index (ADI), is a composite 0-100 score derived from 96 federal economic indicators across five dimensions: buffer depletion, debt stress, financial conditions, cost pressure, and labor market strain. The project publishes free indicator tracking, original analysis, 51 state financial distress profiles, foreclosure law guides for all 50 states, and a 245-term financial distress glossary. American Default does not provide financial advice, accept advertising, or paywall any data. Founded in 2026 by Ross Kilburn. More at americandefault.org.