American Distress Index — One Pager
American Default
Tracking what happens when the system breaks down.
American Distress Index
47.0
Typical
The composite itself sits higher than 44% of all published quarters since 2005
+0.9 from 2026-Q1
What is the index? The American Distress Index is a composite 0-100 score tracking U.S. household financial distress. It averages five equal-weighted domains after each input is converted to a distress-oriented Hazen percentile within its own quarterly history.
The index measures current levels of delinquency, default and legal pressure, debt burden, labor strain, and household buffers.
The composite is a mean of input percentiles, not itself a percentile of quarters; its rank among published quarters is shown under the score.
Five-Domain Breakdown — 2026-Q2
| Domain | Weight | Score | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delinquency | 20% | 61.6 | Mortgage, credit card, consumer loan, and auto loan delinquency |
| Default & Legal | 20% | 44.9 | Credit card charge-offs and foreclosure/charge-off proxy |
| Debt Burden | 20% | 21.5 | Household debt service ratio |
| Labor | 20% | 16.4 | Unemployment rate and initial claims |
| Safety Net & Buffer | 20% | 90.6 | Personal savings rate |
| Composite | 100% | 47.0 |
Domain scores are means of distress-oriented input percentiles. Each domain carries 20% of the composite.
Headline Statistics
3.8%
Personal savings rate
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data retrieved via FRED (PSAVERT)
13.64%
FHA mortgage delinquency
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
2.85%
Credit card delinquency
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System data retrieved via FRED (DRCCLACBS)
11.11%
Debt service ratio
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System data retrieved via FRED (BOGZ1FL010000346Q + TDSP)
194K
Weekly initial claims
Source: U.S. Department of Labor data retrieved via FRED (ICSA)
3.82%
Credit card charge-off rate
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System data retrieved via FRED (CORCCACBS)
Methodology
Data Sources
121 public indicator pages drawing on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the U.S. Census Bureau and other public agencies, plus some industry sources; many federal series are retrieved via FRED
Normalization
Each input is ranked against its own quarterly history on its current reporting basis, using Hazen percentiles
Scoring
Five equal-weighted domains; each domain is the mean of its available input percentiles
Publication Gate
A quarter publishes only when all five domains have at least one present member
Band Labels
National band labels publish only beside the composite's rank in its own published history, shown with the current score
Update Frequency
Composite quarterly; underlying indicators monthly, weekly, and quarterly depending on source
Data Access
API
americandefault.org/api/adi.jsonCSV Download
americandefault.org/api/downloads/all-indicators-latest.csvEmbeddable Charts
americandefault.org/embed/{slug}/ — 121 indicatorsFull Data Kit
County Story Kits
americandefault.org/press/#story-kit — 3,144 counties
Citation
APA
Kilburn, R. (2026). American Distress Index [Data set]. American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/
Media Contact
Ross Kilburn, Founder & Lead Analyst
ross@americandefault.org
(307) 264-2992
americandefault.org