About American Default
What This Is
americandefault.org is an independent, nonpartisan data resource tracking U.S. household financial distress. It publishes the American Distress Index (ADI), a composite 0-100 score that measures whether American families are falling behind on debt, depleting savings, losing homes, or filing for bankruptcy.
The ADI combines five independent dimensions of household financial stress into a single number, updated quarterly: buffer depletion (a validated leading indicator), debt delinquency, financial conditions, cost-of-living pressure, and labor market disruption.
This is not an opinion site. It doesn't make predictions or give financial advice. It tracks what is, not what will be.
The Gap It Fills
From 1980 through 2013, the CredAbility Consumer Distress Index was published on FRED (the Federal Reserve Economic Data platform). It was the only public composite index tracking household financial distress at the national level. Researchers, journalists, and policymakers used it to understand whether Americans were struggling or stable.
In 2013, CredAbility stopped publishing the index. For the next 13 years — through the late-2010s expansion, COVID-19, post-pandemic inflation, and the current cycle — there was no successor.
The American Distress Index fills that gap. It is not a recreation of the CredAbility index (which used credit bureau data unavailable to the public). It is a new methodology designed for the data that is publicly available — federal sources, transparent calculation, open to scrutiny.
What Makes It Different
Most economic indexes focus on sentiment (how people feel about the economy) or market conditions (stock prices, bond yields). The ADI focuses on household outcomes — the things that happen when families run out of money.
What makes the ADI unique:
- Combines leading and lagging indicators. Buffer depletion (savings collapse, rising debt service) predicts defaults 2-3 years in advance. No other public index weights for this relationship.
- Tracks five independent dimensions. Most distress indexes focus on a single dimension (usually debt delinquency). The ADI captures buffer depletion, debt stress, financial conditions, cost pressure, and labor market disruption — five statistically independent signals identified through principal component analysis.
- Uses Z-score normalization. The score is calibrated against a 10-year baseline (2015-2024), not arbitrary thresholds. A score of 50 means "average distress for the last decade." A score above 65 means "conditions resembling the 2007-2008 buildup." A score above 80 means "crisis-level distress comparable to the worst quarter of 2009."
- Backtested through the 2008 financial crisis. The methodology was validated using historical data from Q1 2005 through Q3 2025. The ADI correctly entered Crisis in late 2009, provided Serious Stress warnings in 2007-2008, and normalized to Elevated by 2012-2013.
Who It's For
The ADI is built for four audiences:
1. Journalists covering household finance and economic distress
Every story about paycheck-to-paycheck living, rising delinquencies, or record credit card debt needs context. The ADI provides a single composite score that answers: "Is this worse than usual, or within the normal range?"
2. Researchers and policymakers
Think tank analysts, congressional staffers, and advocacy organizations need evidence to support arguments about housing affordability, wage stagnation, or consumer protection policy. The ADI is free, public, and transparent.
3. Americans trying to make sense of their own financial anxiety
If you feel squeezed but keep hearing "the economy is strong," the ADI helps answer: Is it just me, or is this real? The data shows whether your experience is an outlier or part of a broader pattern.
4. Anyone who cares about data integrity
The ADI is published because the data should exist in the public domain. The calculation will be updated quarterly — see the latest quarterly update — and the methodology will remain transparent.
Data Integrity Commitment
All ADI data comes from federal sources:
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Federal Reserve Board
- U.S. Courts
- ATTOM Data Solutions (foreclosure filing data)
- NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report
No proprietary data. No paywalled sources. No models that can't be independently verified. Every indicator page includes full source attribution with clickable links to the original data.
The methodology is published in full. The calculation is transparent. If you disagree with the weighting or baseline period, you can fork the approach and publish your own variant.
americandefault.org does not accept advertising, does not paywall data, and does not take political positions. It tracks household financial distress. That's it.
How It's Built
The ADI is a solo project built for automated operation:
- Data ingestion: Python scripts pull data from FRED and BLS APIs, parse press releases from public sources
- Calculation: Python scripts compute Z-scores, component weights, and composite scores
- Site: Static site built with Astro, hosted on Cloudflare Pages
- Charts: Apache ECharts for time series visualizations (static SSR + interactive web)
- Automation: GitHub Actions runs data updates on a schedule
The entire codebase is designed to run indefinitely with minimal maintenance. If the founder walks away, the site keeps updating automatically as long as federal data sources remain available.
The site also publishes a 245-term financial distress glossary covering foreclosure, bankruptcy, mortgage default, debt collection, and loss mitigation — each term enriched with live ADI data and state-by-state legal variations.
What This Is Not
- Not financial advice. The ADI describes aggregate conditions, not individual circumstances.
- Not legal advice. If you're facing foreclosure or bankruptcy, consult an attorney.
- Not a political project. The ADI doesn't advocate for policies. It measures outcomes.
- Not a prediction tool. The ADI tracks what is happening, not what will happen.
- Not an investment signal. The ADI measures household distress, not market direction.
About the Founder
Ross Kilburn graduated from UC Berkeley in 1992 with a degree in Peace and Conflict Studies, focused on economic sustainability. He has spent the decades since inside the machinery of American household financial distress.
In 2003, he started Washington Foreclosure Assistance, doing property preservation work on foreclosed homes. In 2008, he founded Seattle Short Sales, where his team negotiated over 1,000 short sales during the Great Recession. In 2011, he became CEO of Ark Law Group, which helped distressed homeowners across five states and was twice named to the Puget Sound Business Journal's fastest-growing companies list. He is the author of The Ark Law Group Complete Guide to Short Sales (Auroch Press, 2013).
Today, Ross runs marketing and lead generation for a Washington State foreclosure defense law firm, where he sees early-stage financial distress data in real time. American Default grew out of a simple observation from that work: the federal data we rely on to understand household financial health is fragmented, delayed, and increasingly at risk. ADI exists to fill that gap — an independent, nonpartisan composite score tracking how American households are actually doing.
Contact
For data questions, methodology clarifications, or media inquiries, email: contact@americandefault.org
Journalists and researchers: see our data kit for CSV downloads, embeddable charts, API access, and pre-built story angles. For a printable summary, see the ADI one-pager.