American Worker Index

83.0 Crisis

January 2026 · Updated Mar 6, 2026

AI workforce displacement signals are at extreme levels. Capability growth, layoffs, and job market contraction indicate acute pressure on workers most exposed to automation.

Score Zones

Crisis 80–100 Current

Extreme displacement pressure across multiple dimensions.

Serious Stress 65–80

Widening workforce impact — several signals well above normal.

Elevated 50–65

Pressure building — capability growth or layoffs above baseline.

Normal 35–50

Near the 2023–2024 baseline. No broad displacement signals.

Healthy 0–35

Low displacement pressure. Stable job market for exposed occupations.

Five Components

The AWI tracks AI workforce displacement through five weighted components. Each captures a different stage of the AI displacement pipeline — from raw capability growth to downstream labor market effects. See the full analysis for how these connect to household financial distress.

AI-Attributed Layoffs 25%
0K +3.00 Z
in 2025

Layoffs explicitly attributed to AI by the announcing company.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas
Youth Unemployment 25%
9.5% +0.92 Z
ages 16–24

The cohort most exposed to entry-level automation: early-career workers competing directly with AI tools.

BLS via FRED
Tech Job Openings 20%
101K +0.00 Z
NAICS 51 openings

Information sector (NAICS 51) job openings. Down 53% from 2022 peak of 218K.

BLS JOLTS
AI Adoption Rate 15%
17.3% +0.00 Z
of businesses

Share of U.S. businesses using AI in any business function. Tripled from 3.7% to 10.0% in two years.

Census Bureau BTOS
AI Capability Growth 15%
14h 30m +3.00 Z
Claude Opus 4.6

Maximum task duration AI can handle autonomously. Doubling every 4.3 months.

METR

AWI History

The AWI starts in early 2019, when METR began publishing capability benchmarks. It stayed in the Normal–Elevated range through 2023, then accelerated sharply in 2024–2025 as AI capability growth, adoption, and layoffs all surged simultaneously.

How AWI Connects to ADI

The AWI measures upstream force — the AI capability and adoption that drives workforce displacement. The American Distress Index measures downstream effect — the household financial distress that results when displaced workers miss mortgage payments, drain savings, and fall behind on debt.

Stage 1
Capability

AI systems can handle longer, more complex tasks. METR time horizons grew from 3.5 minutes to 14h 30m.

→
Stage 2
Adoption

Businesses integrate AI into production. Census BTOS shows 17.3% of firms using AI, up from 3.7% in two years.

→
Stage 3
Displacement

Workers lose jobs or hours. 0K layoffs explicitly attributed to AI in 2025, with tech openings down 53%.

→
Stage 4
Default

Displaced workers miss payments. This is where AWI meets the ADI — buffer depletion, debt stress, and delinquency follow with a lag.

The workers most exposed to AI — clerical, customer service, data entry, earning $30–55K — overlap heavily with FHA borrowers and subprime cardholders. Read the full AI displacement analysis for the demographic bridge.

Understanding the AWI

Explore Further

American Distress Index The downstream composite tracking household financial distress When AI Takes the Job The 4-stage pipeline from AI capability to missed mortgage payments Is AI Showing Up in Default Data? What the numbers say about AI displacement and financial distress Unemployment Statistics 2026 U-3, U-6, initial claims, Indeed postings, and hidden slack Indicator Dashboard All 90+ indicators sortable by trend and category Methodology Z-score normalization, component weights, and backtest validation
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