Upstream Pressure

Wage Growth vs CPI Spread

Tracking improving relative to recent baseline.

What is the current Wage Growth vs CPI Spread?

WAGE GROWTH VS CPI SPREAD
1.24 pts ↑ Improving
Wage Growth vs CPI Spread at +1.3 pts
One year ago
1.5 pts ↓ Worsening
down 0.3 points since Feb 2025

The wage growth vs CPI spread stands at 1.27 percentage points in the latest reading — meaning nominal wage growth exceeds CPI inflation by this margin. When positive, workers are gaining purchasing power. When negative, real wages are falling and households lose ground. This spread is a key component of the Cost Pressure dimension of the American Distress Index. Source: Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker, BLS CPI.

Wage Growth vs CPI Spread at +1.3 pts

Tracking improving relative to recent baseline.

Source: Computed (Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker - CPI YoY) · Latest: 2026-02
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Explore Further

📊 Cost of Living & Inflation Statistics 2026 → 📖 What Is Real Wages? → 📖 What Is Inflation? →

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How has Wage Growth vs CPI Spread changed over time?

CSV Chart Card
Wage Growth vs CPI Spread over time
Wage Growth vs CPI Spread, percentage_points
Wage Growth vs CPI Spread
Data: Computed (Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker - CPI YoY) Updated Mar 2026
Historical data
Monthly · Computed (Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker - CPI YoY)
Period Value YoY Change
Feb 2026 1.24 pts −0.3 pts
Jan 2026 1.27 pts +0.2 pts
Dec 2025 -0 pts −1.7 pts
Nov 2025 0.81 pts −0.3 pts
Sep 2025 1.18 pts −1.3 pts
Aug 2025 1.06 pts −1.1 pts
Jul 2025 1.46 pts −0.1 pts
Jun 2025 1.22 pts −0.6 pts
May 2025 1.82 pts +0.4 pts
Apr 2025 1.87 pts −1.3 pts
Mar 2025 2.02 pts +1.0 pts
Feb 2025 1.5 pts −0.2 pts

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the wage-CPI spread?

The wage-CPI spread measures the gap between nominal wage growth and CPI inflation. At 1.27 percentage points, wages are currently growing faster than prices — a positive sign for household purchasing power.

Why does the wage-CPI spread matter?

When inflation outpaces wages (negative spread), households lose purchasing power and must dip into savings or take on debt to maintain living standards. The American Distress Index tracks this as a Cost Pressure component.

Where does this data come from?

Computed from the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker (median wage growth) minus BLS CPI year-over-year inflation.

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Why does Wage Growth vs CPI Spread matter?

Wage Growth vs CPI Spread is one of 91 indicators in the American Distress Index's upstream pressure layer — the signal that predicted the 2008 crisis two years before delinquency data confirmed it.
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