Upstream Pressure

The Import Tax

The 2025 Liberation Day tariff escalation hit consumer goods directly, with t...

What is the current The Import Tax?

HOUSEHOLD TARIFF BURDEN (ESTIMATED TARIFF COS
1.72%
Tariff burden on U.S. households spiked to ~1.7% of income i
One year ago
0.79% ↑ Worsening
up 0.9 points since 2024

Import prices rose 1.72% year-over-year in the latest reading. The Import Tax tracks how trade costs — tariffs, shipping, and foreign exchange — flow through to consumer prices. Rising import costs are effectively a hidden tax on consumers, particularly for goods-heavy categories like electronics, clothing, and building materials. Source: BLS.

Tariff burden on U.S. households spiked to ~1.7% of income in 2025 — more than double the pre-trade-war level

The 2025 Liberation Day tariff escalation hit consumer goods directly, with the bottom income quintile bearing a disproportionate ~3% burden.

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Is this happening to you?

Have your grocery or household costs gone up in ways that feel disconnected from inflation headlines?

How has The Import Tax changed over time?

CSV Chart Card
The Import Tax over time
The Import Tax, percent
The Import Tax
Historical data
Annual · Yale Budget Lab + BEA customs duty revenue / NIPA Disposable Personal Income
Period Value YoY Change
2025 1.72% +0.9 pts
2024 0.79% +0.1 pts
2023 0.7% +0.0 pts
2022 0.68% +0.1 pts
2021 0.63% +0.0 pts
2020 0.61% −0.1 pts
2019 0.72% +0.2 pts
2018 0.52% +0.1 pts
2017 0.41% +0.0 pts
2016 0.39% +0.0 pts
2015 0.38%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is The Import Tax?

The Import Tax tracks year-over-year changes in import prices. At 1.72%, it measures how much trade costs are increasing for goods entering the U.S.

Why do import prices matter for distress?

Rising import prices flow through to consumer goods, effectively acting as a hidden tax. Tariff increases amplify this effect, raising costs for everyday products.

Where does this data come from?

Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the Import/Export Price Indexes.

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Why does The Import Tax matter?

The Import Tax is one of 91 indicators in the American Distress Index's upstream pressure layer — the signal that predicted the 2008 crisis two years before delinquency data confirmed it.
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