Housing Affordability Statistics: New-Home Prices and Mortgage Stress (2026)
The Census median sales price of new houses sold was $411,000 in 2026-Q2 — down from its series peak but still 28% above its 2019 average. Separately, FHA mortgage delinquency is 11.8%, and outstanding HELOC balances are $459 billion. Data from U.S. Census Bureau, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Mortgage Bankers Association, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
How Affordable Is Housing in the U.S. Right Now?
The Census median sales price of new houses sold was $411,000 in 2026-Q2, down from the $443,000 series peak set in Q4 2022 but still 28% above its 2019 average of $320,000. MSPUS does not include existing-home sales, does not track the same house through time, and is not the price of a "typical U.S. home." Changes can reflect both market prices and the mix of new houses sold.
The mortgage debt service ratio — aggregate mortgage payments as a share of household disposable income — stands at 5.9%, easing in the latest quarter after 4 consecutive quarterly increases. In Q2 2026, the latest quarter shared by the two delinquency series, FHA mortgage delinquency was 11.8%, or 6.3 times the 1.9% bank-booked single-family mortgage rate. Those measures have different populations and cannot be used to describe one borrower or explain the difference. The American Distress Index currently reads 43.8 (Typical). On average, its inputs sit higher than in 44% of their own quarterly histories.
Key Statistics at a Glance
The American Distress Index currently reads 43.8 (Typical). On average, its inputs sit higher than in 44% of their own quarterly histories. Two measures on this page also appear in the ADI: mortgage delinquency feeds the Delinquency domain, while the mortgage debt service ratio feeds Debt Burden. New-house prices, shelter CPI, HELOC balances, and originations are separate context measures; this page does not infer a fixed sequence among them.
How Has the Median Sales Price of New Houses Changed?
The median sales price of new houses sold in the U.S. peaked at $443,000 in Q4 2022 and has since retreated to $411,000 — an 7% decline from that series high. Compared with the MSPUS 2019 average of $320,000, the latest median is 28% higher. This comparison does not calculate a monthly payment and does not describe existing homes.
Within this same new-house series, the pre-GFC peak was $257,400 in 2007, and the 2008–2012 trough was $208,400 in 2009. The latest median is 60% above that earlier peak. These are distribution medians for new houses sold in each quarter, not gains for a continuing set of homeowners or a buyer-level calculation of equity, affordability, delinquency risk, or ability to keep a house.
Median Sales Price of New Houses Sold, U.S. (Thousands)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau data retrieved via FRED (MSPUS), median sales price of new houses sold. Quarterly; excludes existing-home sales.
Full data and trend: Median sales price of new houses sold indicator page
What Does the Mortgage Debt Service Ratio Measure?
The mortgage debt service ratio — aggregate mortgage payments as a share of household disposable income — stands at 5.9% as of 2026-Q1, easing in the latest quarter after 4 consecutive quarterly increases — up from a low of 4.8% in Q1 2021, and level with the 2019 average of 5.9%.
At the displayed precision, the latest ratio is below the 9.0% pre-2008 peak recorded in Q4 2007. This is an aggregate ratio, not an average monthly payment, borrower-level debt-to-income ratio, underwriting measure, or estimate for FHA borrowers. Changes can reflect either the payment numerator or the disposable-income denominator.
Mortgage Debt Service Ratio (% of Disposable Income)
Source: Federal Reserve data retrieved via FRED (MDSP). Quarterly.
Full data and trend: Mortgage Debt Service Ratio indicator page
How Do FHA and Bank-Booked Mortgage Delinquency Compare?
FHA-insured mortgages carry a 11.8% delinquency rate versus 1.9% in the Fed bank-booked single-family mortgage series. In Q2 2026, the most recent quarter both series report, that multiplier was 6.3 times. It has stayed between 4.7 and 6.4 times in every matching quarter since Q2 2020.
The sources cover different mortgage populations and are released independently. Their rates do not identify the same loans or establish that borrower selection, rates, equity, income, or another factor caused the gap. The latest unpaired values above may cover different quarters; the multiplier is therefore calculated only from the latest shared quarter.
| Metric | FHA Loans | Fed Bank-Booked Series |
|---|---|---|
| Current delinquency rate | 11.8% | 1.9% |
| Source population | FHA-insured mortgages in the MBA National Delinquency Survey | Bank-booked single-family mortgages in Federal Reserve call-report data |
| Comparison limit | Different populations; the series do not identify the same loans or explain the gap. | |
| ADI role | Context comparison | Mortgage delinquency input to the Delinquency domain |
FHA vs. Bank-Booked Mortgage Delinquency Rate
Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey (FHA); Federal Reserve data retrieved via FRED DRSFRMACBS (bank-booked single-family mortgages).
Full analysis: The FHA Signal indicator page | Mortgage Delinquency Statistics 2026
What Do Outstanding HELOC Balances Show?
HELOC balances have risen to $459 billion as of 2026-Q2, up $142 billion (45%) from the Sep 2021 trough of $317 billion.
The stored series maximum is $714 billion in Q1 2009; today's balance is 36% below it. Outstanding balances do not show the amount of new borrowing, how funds were used, why balances changed, or whether the borrowers are the same households represented in saving-rate or hardship-withdrawal data.
HELOC Balances Outstanding (Billions)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Household Debt and Credit Report. Quarterly.
Full data and trend: HELOC Balances indicator page
Keep the Housing Measures Separate
Origination volume is $505 billion in 2026-Q2, or 41% of the maximum in the stored series. The $411,000 price figure is the Census median for new houses sold, not the price of all homes available to buyers. Those two measures have different units and populations.
FHA delinquency and bank-booked mortgage delinquency also cover different populations. Their gap is descriptive; it does not establish which borrowers entered when, what mortgage rate they carry, or why either rate changed.
Read the FHA Signal analysis →How Fast Is Shelter Inflation Rising?
The shelter component of CPI — covering rent and owners' equivalent rent — registered 3.2% year-over-year in 2026-07, using Year-over-year percent change computed from the seasonally adjusted BLS Shelter CPI (CUSR0000SAH1); seasonally adjusted values may be revised. Down sharply from a peak of 8.2% in 2023-03. The Fed's 2% longer-run inflation objective is defined using PCE inflation rather than Shelter CPI; the current shelter reading is now below the 2015-2019 average of 3.3%.
Shelter CPI measures rent of primary residence and owners' equivalent rent within the national CPI framework. It is not a current asking-rent index, mortgage-payment series, or household-specific housing bill, and the page does not use it to forecast a future reading. Our rent and housing cost statistics page shows the same scope alongside separately measured housing-cost indicators.
Full data: Shelter CPI indicator page
Where Can Readers Find Lender and Servicer Context?
The origination-volume series does not rank individual lenders or establish current market share. For company-specific contact and complaint context, use the servicer directory; inclusion there is not a size, quality, or risk ranking.
Data Sources
CPI measurement basis: Every CPI reading and historical comparison on this page uses its source-owned basis unless explicitly identified otherwise: Year-over-year percent change computed from the seasonally adjusted BLS Shelter CPI (CUSR0000SAH1); seasonally adjusted values may be revised.
U.S. Census Bureau data retrieved via FRED
Median Sales Price of Houses Sold (MSPUS), a quarterly Census series for new houses sold in the United States. It excludes existing-home sales and should not be described as the median price of all U.S. homes. Published via FRED.
Federal Reserve data retrieved via FRED
Mortgage Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income (MDSP). Quarterly estimate derived from household sector financial accounts. Bank-booked single-family mortgage delinquency rate (DRSFRMACBS) from bank call reports.
NY Fed / MBA
Household Debt and Credit Report (HELOC balances, mortgage originations) from a nationally representative 5% Equifax sample. MBA National Delinquency Survey (FHA delinquency) covering approximately 27 million loans.
Frequently Asked Questions
How affordable is housing in the U.S. right now?
The Census median sales price of new houses sold was $411,000 in 2026-Q2, down from its $443,000 series peak but still 28% above its 2019 average. MSPUS covers new houses sold; it is not the median for all U.S. homes or a complete affordability measure. Separately, the aggregate mortgage debt service ratio stands at 5.9%, up from its Q1 2021 low and easing in the latest quarter after 4 consecutive quarterly increases.
What is the current mortgage delinquency rate?
In Q2 2026, the latest quarter both series report, the Federal Reserve bank-booked single-family mortgage delinquency rate was 1.9%, while FHA mortgage delinquency was 11.8%, a 6.3 times multiplier. The series cover different mortgage populations and do not identify the same loans, borrower traits, or cause of the difference.
What do HELOC balances show?
Outstanding HELOC balances have grown from $317 billion to $459 billion since Sep 2021, a 45% increase. The balance series does not identify how borrowers used the funds, why balances changed, or whether the same households also appear in savings or hardship-withdrawal data.
How does the FHA delinquency rate compare to the Fed bank-booked mortgage series?
In Q2 2026, the most recent quarter both series report, FHA-insured mortgages carried a 11.8% delinquency rate versus 1.9% in the Fed bank-booked single-family mortgage series. The multiplier was 6.3 times and has ranged from 4.7 to 6.4 times across matching quarters since Q2 2020. Because the populations and source systems differ, the comparison does not attribute the gap to borrower characteristics or economic conditions.
What does housing affordability have to do with the American Distress Index?
Mortgage delinquency is an input to the ADI's Delinquency domain, and the aggregate mortgage debt service ratio is an input to its Debt Burden domain. The other housing measures on this page are context rather than direct inputs. The ADI currently reads 43.8 (Typical). On average, its inputs sit higher than in 44% of their own quarterly histories.