Auto Loan Delinquency Statistics 2026: Serious Default Rates, Trends & Historical Data
Auto loan serious delinquency hit 5.2% in 2025-Q4 — the highest rate since the GFC-era peak of 5.3% in Q4 2010. Up 1.3 percentage points from the post-COVID trough. Car payments are the last bill people stop paying, and more Americans are falling behind. NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report data, updated quarterly.
Last updated: 2026-03-23
What Is the Auto Loan Delinquency Rate in 2026?
The auto loan serious delinquency rate (90+ days past due) was 5.2% as of 2025-Q4, according to the New York Federal Reserve's Household Debt and Credit Report. This means roughly 1 in 19 auto loans are severely delinquent — the borrower has missed at least three consecutive monthly payments.
The rate has risen 10 consecutive quarters from the post-COVID trough of 3.9% in Q2 2022. It is now within 0.06 percentage points of the all-time high set during the financial crisis recovery (5.3% in Q4 2010).
Key Statistics at a Glance
The American Distress Index currently reads 59.0 (Elevated). Auto loan delinquency is a supporting indicator for the ADI's Debt Stress component (25% weight). Car payments carry unique distress significance: unlike credit cards, a missed auto payment risks repossession, and for most Americans, losing a car means losing the ability to get to work. When auto loan delinquency rises, it signals households have exhausted other options — they've already fallen behind on credit cards and drawn down savings before missing the car payment.
Auto Loan Delinquency: Full History (2003–2025)
The full time series shows three distinct eras: the pre-GFC build (2003–2007), the GFC peak and recovery (2008–2014), and the post-COVID resurgence (2022–present). The current rate of 5.2% is approaching the GFC-era peak of 5.3%, but with a different composition — today's auto loan market is larger ($1.66 trillion outstanding) and more subprime-heavy than in 2010.
Auto Loan Serious Delinquency Rate, 90+ Days (%)
Source: NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report / Equifax. Quarterly, 2003–present.
Full data: Auto Loan Delinquency indicator page
Recent Trend: 2015–2025
Zooming into the last decade reveals the post-pandemic trajectory more clearly. Auto delinquency declined during 2020–2021 as stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and forbearance programs temporarily suppressed defaults. The 3.9% trough in Q2 2022 was artificially low.
Since then, the rate has climbed steadily — 10 consecutive quarters of increases. The current 5.2% rate exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 4.9% and is on track to surpass the GFC peak within 1–2 quarters at the current trajectory.
Auto Loan Delinquency Rate, 2015–Present (%)
Source: NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report / Equifax. Quarterly.
Why Auto Loan Delinquency Is a Critical Distress Signal
Among consumer debts, auto loans occupy a unique position in the "payment hierarchy" — the order in which households prioritize bills when cash is tight. Research consistently shows that households prioritize auto payments over credit cards and often over housing, because losing a car has immediate, practical consequences: inability to commute to work, transport children, or access essential services.
The Payment Hierarchy
When a household falls behind on auto loans, it typically means they've already:
- Exhausted emergency savings and available credit
- Fallen behind on credit card payments
- Drawn down retirement accounts (hardship withdrawals)
- Cut discretionary spending to the bone
Auto loan delinquency is a late-stage signal — by the time it appears, the household is in deep financial distress. If you're behind on payments, understanding where auto loans fit in this hierarchy helps prioritize which bills to address first. This makes it a lagging but high-confidence indicator of broader stress.
Auto Loans vs. Other Consumer Debt
Auto loan delinquency is currently running well above credit card delinquency — an unusual divergence. Credit card delinquency has moderated to 2.9% (from a 2024 peak) partly due to charge-offs removing the worst accounts from the denominator. Auto loans don't have the same charge-off dynamic — lenders can repossess the vehicle, so delinquent accounts stay on the books longer.
| Debt Type | Current Rate | Pre-Pandemic | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auto loans (90+ days) | 5.2% | 4.9% | +0.27 pp | NY Fed / Equifax |
| Credit cards (all banks) | 2.9% | 2.52% | +0.42 pp | Fed Board via FRED |
Auto loan data: NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report, serious delinquency (90+ days). Credit card data: FRED series DRCCLACBS, delinquency rate on credit card loans, all commercial banks. Pre-pandemic baseline: Q4 2019.
See also: Consumer Debt Statistics 2026 for the full cross-asset picture including student loans and total household debt.
Auto Loan Delinquency: Recent Quarterly Data
| Quarter | Delinquency Rate | Year-Over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2023 | 3.9% | -0.11 pp |
| Q2 2023 | 3.8% | -0.04 pp |
| Q3 2023 | 3.9% | +0.02 pp |
| Q4 2023 | 4.2% | +0.44 pp |
| Q1 2024 | 4.4% | +0.52 pp |
| Q2 2024 | 4.4% | +0.61 pp |
| Q3 2024 | 4.6% | +0.68 pp |
| Q4 2024 | 4.8% | +0.66 pp |
| Q1 2025 | 5.0% | +0.58 pp |
| Q2 2025 | 5.0% | +0.56 pp |
| Q3 2025 | 5.0% | +0.43 pp |
| Q4 2025 | 5.2% | +0.38 pp |
Source: New York Federal Reserve Household Debt and Credit Report, Equifax Consumer Credit Panel. "Serious delinquency" is defined as 90+ days past due. Data is quarterly, released approximately 5 weeks after quarter end.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current auto loan delinquency rate?
The auto loan serious delinquency rate (90+ days past due) is 5.2% as of 2025-Q4, according to the NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report. This is the highest level since the financial crisis recovery peak of 5.3% in Q4 2010.
How does auto loan delinquency compare to the 2008 financial crisis?
The current rate of 5.2% is approaching the GFC-era peak of 5.3% (reached in Q4 2010). However, the auto loan market is substantially larger today — approximately $1.66 trillion outstanding versus ~$800 billion in 2010 — meaning the absolute number of delinquent accounts is likely higher now than during the crisis, even though the rate hasn't quite matched the peak.
Why are auto loan defaults rising while unemployment is low?
Low unemployment does not mean financial health. Real wages have not kept pace with cumulative inflation (grocery prices alone are up 32% since 2020). Many borrowers took out auto loans at historically high vehicle prices during 2021–2023, locking in large monthly payments. As pandemic-era savings are depleted and BNPL obligations stack up, auto loan payments become the pressure point — even for employed borrowers.
What happens when you default on an auto loan?
Unlike credit card debt, auto loans are secured by the vehicle. Lenders can repossess the car — often without a court order in most states — once the loan is in default (typically 90+ days). After repossession, the vehicle is sold at auction, and the borrower may still owe a deficiency balance (the difference between the sale price and the remaining loan balance). This deficiency can be sent to collections and may appear on credit reports for up to 7 years.
Where does auto loan delinquency data come from?
The primary source is the New York Federal Reserve's Household Debt and Credit Report, which uses Equifax Consumer Credit Panel data (a nationally representative 5% sample of all U.S. consumer credit files). The report is published quarterly, approximately 5 weeks after quarter end. "Serious delinquency" is defined as 90+ days past due.
Data Sources and Methodology
NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report
Quarterly report based on Equifax Consumer Credit Panel — a nationally representative 5% sample of all U.S. credit files. Covers mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, student loans, and other consumer debt. The "serious delinquency" threshold is 90+ days past due.
FRED Credit Card Delinquency (DRCCLACBS)
Delinquency rate on credit card loans for all commercial banks, reported quarterly by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Used here for cross-asset comparison to contextualize auto loan delinquency within the broader consumer debt picture.
Delinquency Rate Methodology
The NY Fed reports the percentage of outstanding auto loan balances that are 90+ days delinquent (not the percentage of borrowers). A rising rate means a larger share of auto loan dollars are seriously past due, which can reflect both new delinquencies and slower cure rates.