The Risk Reset
2.58% — up from 2.56% a year ago; subprime delinquency creeping back up
What is the current The Risk Reset?
TransUnion reports that subprime originations have shifted as lenders recalibrate risk appetite following pandemic-era credit expansion. This indicator tracks origination patterns among borrowers with credit scores below 620 — the segment most vulnerable to default and most sensitive to changes in lending standards. Source: TransUnion credit data.
TransUnion Subprime Auto/Card Originations at 2.6%
Tracking improving relative to recent baseline.
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Is this happening to you?
Has your credit score dropped recently, or do you worry it might?
How has The Risk Reset changed over time?
| Period | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 2.58% | +0.0 pts |
| Q3 2025 | 2.37% | −0.1 pts |
| Q2 2025 | 2.17% | −0.1 pts |
| Q4 2024 | 2.56% | −0.0 pts |
| Q3 2024 | 2.43% | +0.1 pts |
| Q2 2024 | 2.26% | +0.2 pts |
| Q4 2023 | 2.59% | +0.3 pts |
| Q3 2023 | 2.34% | +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2023 | 2.06% | +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2022 | 2.26% | — |
| Q3 2022 | 1.94% | — |
| Q2 2022 | 1.57% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What are subprime loan originations?
Subprime originations are new loans issued to borrowers with credit scores below 620. These borrowers pay higher interest rates and default at higher rates. Changes in subprime lending volume signal whether lenders are expanding or contracting credit access for the most vulnerable borrowers.
Why does subprime origination volume matter?
When subprime originations expand, it can indicate loosening standards that later produce delinquency waves. When they contract, it means vulnerable borrowers are being cut off from credit, potentially pushing them toward higher-cost alternatives like payday loans or Buy Now Pay Later.
Where does subprime origination data come from?
TransUnion tracks origination patterns from its consumer credit database, one of the three major credit bureaus. Data covers new account openings segmented by credit score tier, loan type, and lender size.
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