AI Workforce

The Adoption Curve

10.0% — up from 6.6% a year ago, nearly 3x the rate two years ago

What is the current The Adoption Curve?

BUSINESS AI ADOPTION RATE
10% ↑ Worsening
10.0% of businesses now use AI in production
One year ago
6.6% ↑ Worsening
up 3.4 points since Q3 2024

17.3% of U.S. businesses reported using artificial intelligence in any business function, according to the Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS). AI adoption is accelerating across sectors, with the rate of adoption serving as a leading indicator of potential workforce displacement. Source: Census Bureau BTOS.

10.0% of businesses now use AI in production — up from 3.7% in 2023

Census BTOS measures businesses using AI in production of goods/services. Upstream indicator: adoption precedes displacement.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey · Latest: 2025-09
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How has The Adoption Curve changed over time?

CSV Chart Card
The Adoption Curve over time
The Adoption Curve, percent
The Adoption Curve
Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey Updated Feb 2026
Historical data
Quarterly · U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey
Period Value YoY Change
Q3 2025 10% +3.4 pts
Q3 2024 6.6% +2.9 pts
Q1 2024 5.4% —
Q4 2023 3.8% —
Q3 2023 3.7% —

Frequently Asked Questions

What percentage of U.S. businesses use AI?

17.3% of U.S. businesses reported using AI in any business function, according to the Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey. The rate varies significantly by industry, with technology and financial services showing the highest adoption.

Why does AI adoption matter for household financial distress?

Rising AI adoption is a leading indicator of potential workforce displacement. As businesses automate tasks previously performed by humans, workers in affected roles face layoffs, longer job searches, and potentially permanent earnings losses — all of which feed into household financial distress.

Where does AI adoption data come from?

The Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) is a biweekly survey of U.S. businesses covering current and anticipated use of AI technologies. It is one of the few government-sourced measures of AI adoption across the economy.

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Why does The Adoption Curve matter?

The Adoption Curve is one of 91 indicators in the American Distress Index's ai workforce layer — the signal that predicted the 2008 crisis two years before delinquency data confirmed it.
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