Free Tool

ADI What-If Calculator

Drag the Z-score sliders to simulate different economic conditions. The composite recalculates in real time using the production weights.

Load scenario:
Your scenario
59.0
Elevated
Production ADI
59.0
Elevated · 2025-Q4
Matches production
Healthy
Normal
Elevated
Serious
Crisis

Component Z-Scores

Each slider controls the Z-score for one component. Positive = worsening distress, negative = improving. Production weights are fixed.

Buffer Depletion 30% weight
How fast households are burning through savings
-3 +3
+0.64
Debt Stress 25% weight
Whether households are falling behind on payments
-3 +3
+0.14
Financial Conditions 15% weight
How tight credit markets are squeezing households
-3 +3
+0.81
Cost Pressure 15% weight
Whether essential costs are outpacing wages
-3 +3
+0.37
Labor Market 15% weight
Whether income disruption is forcing distress
-3 +3
-0.48

How the Score Is Computed

The composite Z-score is the weighted average of the five component Z-scores: composite_z = (0.30 × Buffer) + (0.25 × Debt) + (0.15 × Financial) + (0.15 × Cost) + (0.15 × Labor). This is then converted to a 0-100 score: score = 50 + (composite_z × 27), clipped to [0, 100].

The weights were derived from principal component analysis across 42 indicators and validated via backtesting against the 2007-2010 financial crisis. Buffer Depletion gets the highest weight because savings decline preceded debt defaults by 9 quarters during the GFC.

Read the full methodology →

Frequently Asked Questions

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If you're struggling with debt or facing foreclosure, free help is available. Find help near you · Browse the Glossary · The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development provides HUD-approved housing counselors at no cost. You can also call 1-800-569-4287.