American Distress Index — One Pager

American Default
Tracking what happens when the system breaks down.
americandefault.org
Data as of 2025-Q4
American Distress Index
59.0
Elevated
+2.2 from 2025-Q3

What is the ADI? The American Distress Index is a composite 0-100 score tracking U.S. household financial distress. It synthesizes federal economic data across five statistically derived components to measure how close American households are to the breaking point.

The ADI is not a prediction. It tracks what is — current levels of savings depletion, debt distress, credit tightness, cost pressure, and labor market strain.

Healthy
<35 Normal
35-50 Elevated
50-65 Serious
65-80 Crisis
>80

Five-Component Breakdown — 2025-Q4

Component Weight Z-Score Contribution What It Measures
Buffer Depletion 30% +0.64 +5.2 Savings rate, debt service ratio
Debt Stress 25% +0.14 +0.9 Mortgage & credit card delinquency
Financial Conditions 15% +0.81 +3.3 Credit market tightness
Cost Pressure 15% +0.37 +1.5 Healthcare and wage-inflation gap
Labor Market 15% -0.48 -2.0 Income disruption signals
Composite 100% +0.33 59.0

Z-scores are deviations from the 2015-2024 baseline mean. Positive values indicate above-baseline distress. Contribution = points added to the 50-point center (score = 50 + composite Z × 27).

Headline Statistics

4.5%
Personal savings rate
Source: BEA via FRED
11.52%
FHA mortgage delinquency
Source: MBA NDS
2.94%
Credit card delinquency
Source: FRED (DRCCLACBS)
11.3%
Debt service ratio
Source: FRED (TDSP)
205K
Weekly initial claims
Source: DOL via FRED
4.11%
Credit card charge-off rate
Source: FRED (CORCCACBS)

Methodology

Data Sources
96 federal economic indicators from FRED, BLS, NY Fed, MBA, Census, and other public sources
Baseline
Q1 2015 through Q4 2024, COVID-era values winsorized at 95th percentile
Scoring
Z-anchored scaling: score = 50 + (composite Z × 27), clipped to [0, 100]
Validation
Backtested to 2005. ADI enters Crisis zone in late 2008 (GFC), returns to Normal by 2012.
Leading Indicator
Buffer Depletion predicts Debt Stress by 9 quarters (r=0.69), validated across the 2005-2012 cycle.
Update Frequency
Composite quarterly; underlying indicators monthly, weekly, and quarterly depending on source

Data Access

API
americandefault.org/api/adi.json
CSV Download
americandefault.org/api/downloads/all-indicators-latest.csv
Embeddable Charts
americandefault.org/embed/{slug}/ — 96 indicators
Full Data Kit
americandefault.org/press/
County Story Kits
americandefault.org/press/story-kit/ — 3,144 counties

Citation

APA
Kilburn, R. (2026). American Distress Index [Data set]. American Default. https://americandefault.org/
Media Contact
Ross Kilburn, Founder & Lead Analyst
ross@americandefault.org
americandefault.org
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