Caroline County, Virginia
Above the national median for auto loan delinquency.
Main Findings
Caroline County, Virginia ranks 1,264th most distressed in the United States on the County Distress Index. The driver: 8% of auto loan accounts are 60+ days past due — above the national median of 5%.
- 1,264th of 3,144 counties on the County Distress Index — Elevated zone, 56th in Virginia.
- 8% of auto loan accounts are 60+ days past due (U.S. median 5%). Auto loan delinquency at the 82nd percentile nationally.
- Bankruptcy filing rate at 358 — national median 126, ranked at the 94th percentile.
- Wage-to-rent ratio at 3.2× — national median 4.0×, ranked at the 83rd percentile.
- Owner housing burden at 31% — national median 24%, ranked at the 93rd percentile.
Neighbors span four CDI zones. The 36-point drop to Hanover County marks where the Virginia distress corridor ends.
"Caroline County is where distress lives in the margins. A county where most households are running out of runway, even as the headline numbers stay quiet."
"Elevated-zone counties are the largest block in the index. Most Americans live in counties scoring 55–70 — middle-class households doing the math every month."
Reporter's Notes
Two data points in the indicator table worth a follow-up call.
Caroline County's homeownership rate indicator is at the 12th percentile — while every other indicator in the Housing Cost Burden domain sits at or above the 54th percentile. The gap stands out against owner housing burden. Worth a call to Urban Institute or a local credit counselor in Bowling Green.
The Indicators Behind Caroline County's CDI Score
Every number traces to a public source. Caroline County's value shown alongside VA's median and the U.S. median. Full CSV available for download.
| Indicator | Caroline | VA median | U.S. median | Pctile | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Credit Distress — domain score 61 · Rank 1,184 of 3,144 | |||||
| Debt in collections Share of residents with a credit file who have debt in collections | 27% | 22% | 23% | 64th | Urban Institute (2024) |
| Medical debt in collections Share of residents with a credit file who have medical debt in collections | 1% | 1% | 4% | 20th | Urban Institute (2024) |
| Auto loan delinquency Share of auto loan accounts 60+ days past due | 8% | 6% | 5% | 82nd | Urban Institute (2024) |
| Credit card delinquency Share of credit card accounts 60+ days past due | 7% | 6% | 5% | 69th | Urban Institute (2024) |
| Uninsured rate Share of residents without health insurance coverage | 7% | 7% | 8% | 36th | Census ACS 5-yr (2023) |
| Subprime credit share Share of residents with a credit score below 660 | 28% | 25% | 23% | 70th | Urban Institute (2024) |
| Housing Cost Burden — domain score 52 · Rank 1,479 of 3,144 | |||||
| Rent burden (30%+) Share of renter households paying 30%+ of income on rent | 39% | 40% | 38% | 54th | Census ACS 5-yr (2023) |
| Severe rent burden (50%+) Share of renter households paying 50%+ of income on rent | 19% | 19% | 18% | 54th | Census ACS 5-yr (2023) |
| Owner housing burden Share of owner households paying 30%+ of income on housing | 31% | 25% | 24% | 93rd | Census ACS 5-yr (2023) |
| Homeownership rate Share of occupied housing units that are owner-occupied | 82% | 75% | 74% | 12th | Census ACS 5-yr (2023) |
| Structural Poverty — domain score 22 · Rank 2,670 of 3,144 | |||||
| Unemployment Share of labor force unemployed | 4% | 4% | 4% | 29th | BLS LAUS (Dec 2025) |
| Poverty rate Share of population below the federal poverty line | 9% | 13% | 14% | 15th | Census SAIPE (2023) |
| Household income relative to state Median household income as share of state median | 1.24× | 1.00× | 1.00× | 14th | Census SAIPE (2023) |
| Child poverty rate Share of children under 18 below the federal poverty line | 12% | 18% | 18% | 19th | Census SAIPE (2023) |
| Disability rate Share of residents reporting a disability | 13% | 15% | 16% | 27th | Census ACS 5-yr (2023) |
| Transfer-income dependency Share of personal income from government transfers | 23% | 28% | 27% | 30th | BEA Regional Personal Income (2023) |
| Legal Distress — domain score 94 · Rank 184 of 3,144 | |||||
| Bankruptcy filing rate Personal bankruptcy filings per 100,000 residents | 358 | 177 | 126 | 94th | US Courts F-5A (2025) |
| Economic Vitality — domain score 52 · Rank 1,439 of 3,144 | |||||
| Wage-to-rent ratio Ratio of average weekly wage to fair-market rent | 3.2× | 3.5× | 4.0× | 83rd | BLS QCEW × HUD FMR (2024) |
| Rent-to-income ratio Fair Market Rent (2BR) as share of median household income | 19% | 22% | 21% | 24th | HUD FMR × Census ACS (2024) |
| Business formation rate New business applications per 1,000 residents | 12.3 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 30th | Census Business Formation Statistics (2024) |
| House price change (yoy) House price index year-over-year change | 6% | 5% | 4% | 21st | FHFA HPI (2024) |
Five-Domain Breakdown
The CDI is a PCA-weighted composite of five statistically derived factors. Weights are proportional to each factor's share of explained variance across 3,144 counties.
Methodology
The County Distress Index is a 0–100 composite score of household financial distress, computed for all 3,144 U.S. counties. A score of 50 represents the national county median; higher scores indicate greater distress. The index is built from 21 indicators grouped into five statistically derived factors via principal component analysis (PCA); factor weights are proportional to each factor's share of explained variance (shown in the Five-Domain Breakdown above).
Data sources include the Urban Institute Debt in America (Equifax consumer credit panel), U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey 5-year, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates, Business Formation Statistics), Bureau of Labor Statistics (Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages), U.S. Courts Administrative Office (F-5A bankruptcy filings), and HUD Fair Market Rents. Data vintages range from 2023 to 2025 depending on source; full indicator-level vintage detail is in the methodology document.
For Press & Research
Everything you need to cite Caroline County data — in under 60 seconds.
Draft wire copy 155-word AP-style article — use freely with attribution
BOWLING GREEN, Va. — Caroline County ranks 1,264th among the nation's most financially distressed counties, according to the County Distress Index released this month by American Default Research.
The composite score of 55 out of 100 places Caroline in the "Elevated" zone. Among 3,144 U.S. counties scored, 1,263 counties rank more distressed. Within Virginia, Caroline ranks 56th of 133 counties and independent cities.
The index, which draws on 21 indicators from the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Urban Institute and federal court filings, identifies consumer credit distress as the primary driver in Caroline. 8% of auto loan accounts are 60+ days past due — above the national median of 5%.
"Caroline County is where distress lives in the margins. A county where most households are running out of runway, even as the headline numbers stay quiet," said Ross Kilburn, founder of American Default Research.
Full methodology and county-by-county data are available at americandefault.org/methodology/cdi.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Caroline County's CDI score, and what does it mean?
What drives Caroline County's distress score?
How does Caroline County compare to its neighbors?
How is the County Distress Index calculated?
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