#1,441 Virginia · 2026

Caroline County, Virginia

53.0 · moderate county distress 1,441st of 3,144 counties nationally · 32,640 residents How this is calculated →
The headline number
358 Caroline residents
vs.
126 U.S. median

3× the national median for bankruptcy filing rate — and 49.1× the rate of the healthiest U.S. county (Glacier County, MT — 7).

US Courts F-5A (2025)

Main Findings

Wire lede · 33 words · paste-ready

Caroline County, Virginia ranks 1,441st most distressed in the United States on the County Distress Index. The driver: a bankruptcy filing rate of 358 — more than double the national median of 126.

Key Findings
  • 1,441st of 3,144 counties on the County Distress Index — 53.0 · moderate county distress, 65th in Virginia.
  • A bankruptcy filing rate of 358 (U.S. median 126). Bankruptcy filing rate at the 94th percentile nationally.
  • Auto loan delinquency at 8% — national median 5%, ranked at the 82nd percentile.
  • Severe rent burden (50%+) at 19% — national median 18%, ranked at the 54th percentile.
  • Debt Burden (housing basis) domain score 39 — weight 20.0% of the CDI composite.
Distinctive Signals
Boundary Signal

Neighbors span five CDI score labels. The 41-point drop to Hanover County marks where the Virginia distress corridor ends.

County Distress Index cluster map. Caroline County, Virginia and its neighbors colored by county distress score label.
Caroline and its 7 geographic neighbors, graded by County Distress Index score. Caroline County ranks 1,441st of 3,144. American Default Research
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"Caroline County has a moderate county distress score. The county sits near the middle of the CDI score scale, so the domain mix carries the story."

— Ross Kilburn, Founder, American Default Research
Analyst quote — for feature use 26 words

"The CDI gives this county a moderate county distress label. The domain mix matters because the same composite score can come from very different local conditions."

— Ross Kilburn, Founder, American Default Research

Indicator History

Period-correct raw indicators from the county-history panel. The CDI composite is excluded because it is a current cross-sectional score.

Updated Jul 1, 2026
BLS1990 to 2025

Unemployment rate

3.4%-4.0 pp since 1990
Census1989 to 2024

Poverty rate

10.4%-2.7 pp since 1989
BEA1969 to 2024

Transfer income share

22.7%+15.1 pp since 1969
FRED/Equifax2014 Q2 to 2025 Q4

Subprime credit population

28.4%-12.1 pp since 2014 Q2

The Indicators Behind Caroline County's CDI Score

Every number traces to a public source. Caroline County's value shown alongside VA's median and the U.S. median. Full CSV available for download.

How to read the table. A domain score is a 0–100 composite of the indicators in that domain, where 50 = U.S. county median and higher = more distressed. Percentile is Caroline County's national rank among all 3,144 U.S. counties for that indicator, always oriented so higher = more distressed.
Indicator Caroline VA median U.S. median Pctile Source
Delinquency — domain score 74 · Rank 728 of 3,144
Auto loan delinquency Share of auto loan accounts 60+ days past due 8% 6% 5% 82nd Urban Institute (2024)
Credit card delinquency Share of credit card accounts 60+ days past due 7% 6% 5% 69th Urban Institute (2024)
Subprime credit share Share of residents with a credit score below 660 28% 25% 23% 69th Urban Institute (2024)
Default & Legal — domain score 79 · Rank 453 of 3,144
Debt in collections Share of residents with a credit file who have debt in collections 27% 22% 23% 64th Urban Institute (2024)
Bankruptcy filing rate Personal bankruptcy filings per 100,000 residents 358 177 126 94th US Courts F-5A (2025)
Debt Burden (housing basis) — domain score 39 · Rank 2,040 of 3,144
Rent-to-income ratio Fair Market Rent (2BR) as share of median household income 19% 22% 21% 24th HUD FMR × Census ACS (2024)
Severe rent burden (50%+) Share of renter households paying 50%+ of income on rent 19% 19% 18% 54th Census ACS 5-yr (2023)
Labor — domain score 43 · Rank 1,836 of 3,144
Unemployment Share of labor force unemployed 3% 3% 4% 43rd BLS LAUS (Dec 2025)
Safety Net & Buffer — domain score 30 · Rank 2,362 of 3,144
Child poverty rate Share of children under 18 below the federal poverty line 12% 18% 18% 19th Census SAIPE (2023)
Disability rate Share of residents reporting a disability 13% 15% 16% 27th Census ACS 5-yr (2023)
Poverty rate Share of population below the federal poverty line 9% 13% 14% 15th Census SAIPE (2023)
Transfer-income dependency Share of personal income from government transfers 23% 28% 27% 30th BEA Regional Personal Income (2023)
Uninsured rate Share of residents without health insurance coverage 7% 7% 8% 36th Census ACS 5-yr (2023)
Data compiled April 2026 from Urban Institute Debt in America (Equifax 2024 panel), U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-yr 2023, SAIPE 2023, Business Formation Statistics 2024), Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS Dec 2025, QCEW 2024), U.S. Courts Administrative Office (F-5A bankruptcy filings 2025), and HUD Fair Market Rents (FY2024).

Five-Domain Breakdown

The CDI is an equal-weight composite of five family-v1 distress domains. Each domain contributes 20% of the county score.

Default & Legal Primary driver 79
Weight 20% · Rank 453 of 3,144
Delinquency 74
Weight 20% · Rank 728 of 3,144
Labor 43
Weight 20% · Rank 1,836 of 3,144
Debt Burden (housing basis) 39
Weight 20% · Rank 2,040 of 3,144
Safety Net & Buffer 30
Weight 20% · Rank 2,362 of 3,144

Methodology

The County Distress Index is a 0–100 composite score of household financial distress, computed for all 3,144 U.S. counties. Higher scores indicate greater distress. The index is built from five equal-weighted domains: Delinquency, Default & Legal, Debt Burden, Labor, and Safety Net & Buffer. Each domain is the mean of distress-oriented indicator percentiles; the CDI score is the equal-weight mean of those domain scores.

Data sources include the Urban Institute Debt in America (Equifax consumer credit panel), U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey 5-year, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates, Business Formation Statistics), Bureau of Labor Statistics (Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages), U.S. Courts Administrative Office (F-5A bankruptcy filings), and HUD Fair Market Rents. Data vintages range from 2023 to 2025 depending on source; full indicator-level vintage detail is in the methodology document.

For Press & Research

Everything you need to cite Caroline County data — in under 60 seconds.

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Press contact: Ross Kilburn · press@americandefault.org · (307) 264-2992 · same-day response, 9am–6pm ET
Draft wire copy 155-word AP-style article — use freely with attribution
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BOWLING GREEN, Va. — Caroline County ranks 1,441st among the nation's most financially distressed counties, according to the County Distress Index released this month by American Default Research.

The composite score of 53.0 out of 100 gives Caroline a moderate county distress label. Among 3,144 U.S. counties scored, 1,440 counties rank more distressed. Within Virginia, Caroline ranks 65th of 133 counties and independent cities.

The index, which draws on 16 source indicators from the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Urban Institute and federal court filings, identifies default & legal as the primary driver in Caroline. A bankruptcy filing rate of 358 — more than double the national median of 126.

"Caroline County has a moderate county distress score. The county sits near the middle of the CDI score scale, so the domain mix carries the story," said Ross Kilburn, founder of American Default Research.

Full methodology and county-by-county data are available at americandefault.org/methodology/cdi.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Caroline County's CDI score, and what does it mean?

Caroline County scores 53.0 out of 100 on the County Distress Index, with the score label moderate county distress. It ranks 1,441st of 3,144 U.S. counties and 65th of 133 Virginia counties and independent cities. Higher county scores indicate more distress.

What drives Caroline County's distress score?

The highest-scoring domain is Default & Legal, at a domain score of 79. Bankruptcy filing rate ranks at the 94th percentile nationally.

How does Caroline County compare to its neighbors?

Caroline County's neighbors span 5 CDI score labels. Highest-distress neighbor: Essex County (68.08, moderate-high county distress). Lowest: Hanover County (26.59, low county distress).

How is the County Distress Index calculated?

The CDI is a 0–100 composite of 16 source indicators across five equal-weighted domains: Delinquency, Default & Legal, Debt Burden, Labor, and Safety Net & Buffer. Data comes from Urban Institute, Census Bureau, BLS, U.S. Courts, HUD, and related public sources. Full methodology →
Ross Kilburn
Written by

Ross Kilburn, Founder

Founder · American Default Research · Seattle, Washington

Two decades working directly with financially distressed American households — from property preservation in 2003, to negotiating over 1,000 short sales during the Great Recession, to foreclosure defense marketing today. Author, The Ark Law Group Complete Guide to Short Sales (Auroch Press, 2013). Founded American Default Research in 2026.

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