---
title: "Wage Growth vs CPI Spread"
slug: wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread
summary: "Wage growth minus inflation was 0.2 percentage points in September 2026, down from 1.3 percentage points in September 2025"
category: "Warning Signs"
unit: percentage_points
frequency: monthly
direction: lower_is_worse
latest_value: 0.1827
latest_period: "2026-09"
trend: falling
last_updated: "2026-10-14T00:00:00Z"
source: "Computed (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Wage Tracker - CPI YoY)"
source_url: https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker
canonical_html: https://americandefault.org/indicators/wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread/
citation_apa: "Kilburn, R. (2026). Wage Growth vs CPI Spread [Data set]. American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread/"
citation_chicago: "Kilburn, Ross. 2026. \"Wage Growth vs CPI Spread.\" American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread/."
citation_mla: "Kilburn, Ross. \"Wage Growth vs CPI Spread.\" American Default Research, 2026, americandefault.org/indicators/wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread/."
---

# Wage Growth vs CPI Spread

> Wage growth minus inflation was 0.2 percentage points in September 2026, down from 1.3 percentage points in September 2025

## Current Reading

As of September 2026, Wage Growth vs CPI Spread is **0.2 percentage points** (falling — worsening for households).

wage growth above CPI inflation

## What Changed

- Wage growth minus inflation was 0.2 percentage points in September 2026, down from 1.3 percentage points in September 2025.
- Median hourly pay growth ran 0.2 percentage points ahead of CPI inflation.
- The spread was 0.7 percentage points a month earlier, in August 2026; single months are noisy because the wage input is not smoothed.

## Recent Values

| Period | Value |
|--------|-------|
| 2026-09 | 0.18 pp |
| 2026-08 | 0.75 pp |
| 2026-07 | 0.5 pp |
| 2026-06 | 0.84 pp |
| 2026-05 | -0.77 pp |
| 2026-04 | -0.58 pp |
| 2026-03 | 0.51 pp |
| 2026-02 | 1.47 pp |
| 2026-01 | 1.71 pp |
| 2025-12 | 0.35 pp |
| 2025-11 | 1.1 pp |
| 2025-09 | 1.28 pp |

## Historical Context

- Peak since 2000: **4.7 percentage points** in July 2009
- Low since 2000: **-2.7 percentage points** in March 2022
- Pre-pandemic average (2015-01 – 2019-12): **1.9 percentage points**
- Post-pandemic average (2020-01 – 2024-12): **0.6 percentage points**

## Methodology

This indicator carries monthly observations and is interpreted as lower values indicate worse household conditions. Source: Computed (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Wage Tracker - CPI YoY).
Automation: collected automatically on the daily refresh pipeline, with no hand entry.

## Source

Computed (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Wage Tracker - CPI YoY) — [https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker](https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker)

Data retrieved: 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z

## Related Indicators

- [cpi-inflation-rate-all-items](https://americandefault.org/indicators/cpi-inflation-rate-all-items/)
- [the-grocery-gap](https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-grocery-gap/)

## Machine-Readable Endpoints

- HTML page: https://americandefault.org/indicators/wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread/
- JSON: https://americandefault.org/api/indicators/wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread.json
- CSV: https://americandefault.org/api/downloads/wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread.csv
- BibTeX: https://americandefault.org/citations/wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread.bib
- RIS: https://americandefault.org/citations/wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread.ris

## Citation

**APA 7th**

    Kilburn, R. (2026). Wage Growth vs CPI Spread [Data set]. American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread/

**Chicago (author-date)**

    Kilburn, Ross. 2026. "Wage Growth vs CPI Spread." American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread/.

**MLA 9th**

    Kilburn, Ross. "Wage Growth vs CPI Spread." American Default Research, 2026, americandefault.org/indicators/wage-growth-vs-cpi-spread/.

Use **American Default Research** as the institutional name in source lists, bibliographies, and press citations. **American Default** is the brand and URL form. **American Distress Index (ADI)** is the product name for the national composite score.