---
title: "Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index"
slug: the-warning-light
summary: "Consumer expectations index at 72.6 in October 2026, up from 65.7 in September 2026"
category: "Warning Signs"
unit: index
frequency: monthly
direction: lower_is_worse
latest_value: 72.6
latest_period: "2026-10"
trend: rising
last_updated: "2026-10-27T00:00:00Z"
source: "The Conference Board"
measurement_basis: "The Conference Board's Consumer Expectations Index, the forward-looking half of its Consumer Confidence Survey, covering how respondents see income, business conditions and employment over the next six months. The Conference Board treats a reading below eighty as signalling a recession ahead within the year; that threshold is the producer's, not ours. It marks elevated risk rather than a timer: the index has run below the line for long stretches without a recession following, including the current run."
source_url: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
canonical_html: https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-warning-light/
citation_apa: "Kilburn, R. (2026). Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index [Data set]. American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-warning-light/"
citation_chicago: "Kilburn, Ross. 2026. \"Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index.\" American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-warning-light/."
citation_mla: "Kilburn, Ross. \"Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index.\" American Default Research, 2026, americandefault.org/indicators/the-warning-light/."
---

# Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index

Also tracked as The Warning Light.

> Consumer expectations index at 72.6 in October 2026, up from 65.7 in September 2026

## Current Reading

As of October 2026, Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index is **72.6** (rising — improving for households).

on a 1985 = 100 scale; the Conference Board treats readings below 80 as a recession warning

## What Changed

- The Conference Board's consumer expectations index read 72.6 in October 2026, a preliminary figure, up from 65.7 in September 2026.
- A year earlier, in October 2025, it was about the same, at 71.5.

## Recent Values

| Period | Value |
|--------|-------|
| 2026-10 | 72.6 |
| 2026-09 | 65.7 |
| 2026-08 | 69.5 |
| 2026-07 | 74.7 |
| 2026-06 | 74.4 |
| 2026-05 | 74.4 |
| 2026-04 | 73.4 |
| 2026-03 | 71 |
| 2026-02 | 72 |
| 2026-01 | 65.1 |
| 2025-12 | 70.7 |
| 2025-11 | 63.2 |

## Historical Context

- Peak since 2024: **92.3** in November 2024
- Low since 2024: **54.4** in April 2025

## Methodology

This indicator carries monthly observations and is interpreted as lower values indicate worse household conditions. Source: The Conference Board.
Measurement basis: The Conference Board's Consumer Expectations Index, the forward-looking half of its Consumer Confidence Survey, covering how respondents see income, business conditions and employment over the next six months. The Conference Board treats a reading below eighty as signalling a recession ahead within the year; that threshold is the producer's, not ours. It marks elevated risk rather than a timer: the index has run below the line for long stretches without a recession following, including the current run.
Automation: collected automatically on the daily refresh pipeline, with no hand entry.

## Source

The Conference Board — [https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence)

Data retrieved: 2026-10-27T00:00:00Z

## Related Indicators

- [the-mood-ring](https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-mood-ring/)

## Machine-Readable Endpoints

- HTML page: https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-warning-light/
- JSON: https://americandefault.org/api/indicators/the-warning-light.json
- CSV: https://americandefault.org/api/downloads/the-warning-light.csv
- BibTeX: https://americandefault.org/citations/the-warning-light.bib
- RIS: https://americandefault.org/citations/the-warning-light.ris

## Citation

**APA 7th**

    Kilburn, R. (2026). Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index [Data set]. American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-warning-light/

**Chicago (author-date)**

    Kilburn, Ross. 2026. "Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index." American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-warning-light/.

**MLA 9th**

    Kilburn, Ross. "Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index." American Default Research, 2026, americandefault.org/indicators/the-warning-light/.

Use **American Default Research** as the institutional name in source lists, bibliographies, and press citations. **American Default** is the brand and URL form. **American Distress Index (ADI)** is the product name for the national composite score.