---
title: "NFCI Non-Financial Leverage Subindex"
slug: the-tightening
summary: "Chicago Fed nonfinancial leverage subindex: -0.46 in the latest week, close to the -0.59 of a year earlier"
category: "Warning Signs"
unit: index
frequency: weekly
direction: bidirectional
latest_value: -0.461
latest_period: "2026-10-30"
trend: stable
last_updated: "2026-11-04T00:00:00Z"
source: "Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago data retrieved via FRED"
source_url: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCINONFINLEVERAGE
canonical_html: https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-tightening/
citation_apa: "Kilburn, R. (2026). NFCI Non-Financial Leverage Subindex [Data set]. American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-tightening/"
citation_chicago: "Kilburn, Ross. 2026. \"NFCI Non-Financial Leverage Subindex.\" American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-tightening/."
citation_mla: "Kilburn, Ross. \"NFCI Non-Financial Leverage Subindex.\" American Default Research, 2026, americandefault.org/indicators/the-tightening/."
---

# NFCI Non-Financial Leverage Subindex

Also tracked as The Tightening.

> Chicago Fed nonfinancial leverage subindex: -0.46 in the latest week, close to the -0.59 of a year earlier

## Current Reading

As of the week ending Oct 30, 2026, NFCI Non-Financial Leverage Subindex is **-0.5** (stable).

on the NFCI non-financial leverage subindex; zero is the historical-average line

## What Changed

- The Chicago Fed's nonfinancial leverage subindex was -0.46 in the week ending Oct 30, 2026, close to the -0.59 of a year earlier.
- The reading is below zero, the long-run average.
- The highest reading since the week ending Mar 22, 2019 in the Chicago Fed's current estimates.

## Recent Values

| Period | Value |
|--------|-------|
| 2026-10-30 | -0.461 |
| 2026-10-23 | -0.465 |
| 2026-10-16 | -0.469 |
| 2026-10-09 | -0.473 |
| 2026-10-02 | -0.477 |
| 2026-09-25 | -0.482 |
| 2026-09-18 | -0.487 |
| 2026-09-11 | -0.492 |
| 2026-09-04 | -0.497 |
| 2026-08-28 | -0.503 |
| 2026-08-21 | -0.509 |
| 2026-08-14 | -0.515 |

## Historical Context

- Peak since 1971: **2.8** in August 2007
- Low since 1971: **-2** in September 2020
- Pre-pandemic average (2015-01 – 2019-12): **-0.6**
- Post-pandemic average (2020-01 – 2024-12): **-1**

## Methodology

This indicator carries weekly observations and is interpreted as moving in both directions against household distress, with no single end of the range reading as the distressed one. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago data retrieved via FRED.
Automation: collected automatically on the daily refresh pipeline, with no hand entry.

## Source

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago data retrieved via FRED — [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCINONFINLEVERAGE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCINONFINLEVERAGE)

Data retrieved: 2026-11-04T00:00:00Z

## Related Indicators

- [debt-service](https://americandefault.org/indicators/debt-service/)

## Machine-Readable Endpoints

- HTML page: https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-tightening/
- JSON: https://americandefault.org/api/indicators/the-tightening.json
- CSV: https://americandefault.org/api/downloads/the-tightening.csv
- BibTeX: https://americandefault.org/citations/the-tightening.bib
- RIS: https://americandefault.org/citations/the-tightening.ris

## Citation

**APA 7th**

    Kilburn, R. (2026). NFCI Non-Financial Leverage Subindex [Data set]. American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-tightening/

**Chicago (author-date)**

    Kilburn, Ross. 2026. "NFCI Non-Financial Leverage Subindex." American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-tightening/.

**MLA 9th**

    Kilburn, Ross. "NFCI Non-Financial Leverage Subindex." American Default Research, 2026, americandefault.org/indicators/the-tightening/.

Use **American Default Research** as the institutional name in source lists, bibliographies, and press citations. **American Default** is the brand and URL form. **American Distress Index (ADI)** is the product name for the national composite score.