---
title: "Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation"
slug: the-k-shape
summary: "Wage growth in the bottom wage quartile ran 1.1 percentage points ahead of inflation in 2025"
category: "Jobs"
unit: percentage_points
frequency: annual
direction: lower_is_worse
latest_value: 1.1
latest_period: "2025"
trend: falling
last_updated: "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z"
source: "Computed from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Wage Growth Tracker and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index"
source_url: https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/wage-growth-tracker
source_urls:
  - https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/wage-growth-tracker
  - https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
canonical_html: https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-k-shape/
citation_apa: "Kilburn, R. (2026). Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation [Data set]. American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-k-shape/"
citation_chicago: "Kilburn, Ross. 2026. \"Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation.\" American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-k-shape/."
citation_mla: "Kilburn, Ross. \"Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation.\" American Default Research, 2026, americandefault.org/indicators/the-k-shape/."
---

# Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation

Also tracked as The K-Shape.

> Wage growth in the bottom wage quartile ran 1.1 percentage points ahead of inflation in 2025

## Current Reading

As of 2025, Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation is **1.1 percentage points** (falling — worsening for households).

bottom-quartile wage growth minus CPI inflation, 2025 average

## What Changed

- Bottom-quartile wage growth ran 1.1 percentage points ahead of CPI inflation in 2025.
- The gap is down from 2.2 percentage points in 2024.
- The lowest gap since 2022.

## Recent Values

| Period | Value |
|--------|-------|
| 2025 | 1.1 pp |
| 2024 | 2.2 pp |
| 2023 | 2.4 pp |
| 2022 | -0.9 pp |
| 2021 | -0.1 pp |
| 2020 | 3.2 pp |
| 2019 | 2.7 pp |
| 2018 | 1.5 pp |
| 2017 | 1.9 pp |
| 2016 | 2.6 pp |
| 2015 | 3.1 pp |
| 2014 | 0.5 pp |

## Historical Context

- Peak since 2000: **3.9 percentage points** in 2009
- Low since 2000: **-1.7 percentage points** in 2011
- Pre-pandemic average (2015-01 – 2019-12): **2.4 percentage points**
- Post-pandemic average (2020-01 – 2024-12): **1.4 percentage points**

## Methodology

This indicator carries annual observations and is interpreted as lower values indicate worse household conditions. Source: Computed from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Wage Growth Tracker and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index.
Automation: collected automatically on the daily refresh pipeline, with no hand entry.

## Source

Computed from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Wage Growth Tracker and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index
- [https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/wage-growth-tracker](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/wage-growth-tracker)
- [https://www.bls.gov/cpi/](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)

Data retrieved: 2026-09-24T00:00:00Z

## Related Indicators

- [atlanta-fed-wage-growth-tracker-1st-quartile](https://americandefault.org/indicators/atlanta-fed-wage-growth-tracker-1st-quartile/)
- [cpi-inflation-rate-all-items](https://americandefault.org/indicators/cpi-inflation-rate-all-items/)

## Machine-Readable Endpoints

- HTML page: https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-k-shape/
- JSON: https://americandefault.org/api/indicators/the-k-shape.json
- CSV: https://americandefault.org/api/downloads/the-k-shape.csv
- BibTeX: https://americandefault.org/citations/the-k-shape.bib
- RIS: https://americandefault.org/citations/the-k-shape.ris

## Citation

**APA 7th**

    Kilburn, R. (2026). Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation [Data set]. American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-k-shape/

**Chicago (author-date)**

    Kilburn, Ross. 2026. "Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation." American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-k-shape/.

**MLA 9th**

    Kilburn, Ross. "Bottom-Quartile Wage Growth vs. Inflation." American Default Research, 2026, americandefault.org/indicators/the-k-shape/.

Use **American Default Research** as the institutional name in source lists, bibliographies, and press citations. **American Default** is the brand and URL form. **American Distress Index (ADI)** is the product name for the national composite score.