---
title: "Grocery Affordability Gap"
slug: the-grocery-gap
summary: "Average hourly earnings growth ran 0.6 percentage points ahead of food price growth in the 12 months to September 2026"
category: "Prices"
unit: percentage_points
frequency: monthly
direction: lower_is_worse
latest_value: 0.5716
latest_period: "2026-09"
trend: stable
last_updated: "2026-10-14T00:00:00Z"
source: "Computed (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Average Hourly Earnings YoY - Food CPI YoY)"
source_url: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003
canonical_html: https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-grocery-gap/
citation_apa: "Kilburn, R. (2026). Grocery Affordability Gap [Data set]. American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-grocery-gap/"
citation_chicago: "Kilburn, Ross. 2026. \"Grocery Affordability Gap.\" American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-grocery-gap/."
citation_mla: "Kilburn, Ross. \"Grocery Affordability Gap.\" American Default Research, 2026, americandefault.org/indicators/the-grocery-gap/."
---

# Grocery Affordability Gap

Also tracked as The Grocery Gap.

> Average hourly earnings growth ran 0.6 percentage points ahead of food price growth in the 12 months to September 2026

## Current Reading

As of September 2026, Grocery Affordability Gap is **0.6 percentage points** (stable).

hourly earnings growth minus food CPI inflation, 12 months to September 2026

## What Changed

- Average hourly earnings growth ran 0.6 percentage points ahead of food price growth in the 12 months to September 2026, a gap about the same as the 0.7 percentage points of September 2025.
- A month earlier, in August 2026, the gap was about the same, at 0.5 percentage points.

## Recent Values

| Period | Value |
|--------|-------|
| 2026-09 | 0.57 pp |
| 2026-08 | 0.48 pp |
| 2026-07 | 0.27 pp |
| 2026-06 | 0.4 pp |
| 2026-05 | 0.26 pp |
| 2026-04 | 0.35 pp |
| 2026-03 | 0.69 pp |
| 2026-02 | 0.56 pp |
| 2026-01 | 0.72 pp |
| 2025-12 | 0.69 pp |
| 2025-11 | 1.31 pp |
| 2025-09 | 0.73 pp |

## Historical Context

- Peak since 2007: **4.6 percentage points** in April 2020
- Low since 2007: **-6.1 percentage points** in September 2022
- Pre-pandemic average (2015-01 – 2019-12): **1.5 percentage points**
- Post-pandemic average (2020-01 – 2024-12): **-0.5 percentage points**

## Methodology

This indicator carries monthly observations and is interpreted as lower values indicate worse household conditions. Source: Computed (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Average Hourly Earnings YoY - Food CPI YoY).
Automation: collected automatically on the daily refresh pipeline, with no hand entry.

## Source

Computed (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Average Hourly Earnings YoY - Food CPI YoY) — [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003)

Data retrieved: 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z

## Related Indicators

- [food-price-inflation](https://americandefault.org/indicators/food-price-inflation/)
- [grocery-prices-cumulative-change-since-jan-2020](https://americandefault.org/indicators/grocery-prices-cumulative-change-since-jan-2020/)

## Machine-Readable Endpoints

- HTML page: https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-grocery-gap/
- JSON: https://americandefault.org/api/indicators/the-grocery-gap.json
- CSV: https://americandefault.org/api/downloads/the-grocery-gap.csv
- BibTeX: https://americandefault.org/citations/the-grocery-gap.bib
- RIS: https://americandefault.org/citations/the-grocery-gap.ris

## Citation

**APA 7th**

    Kilburn, R. (2026). Grocery Affordability Gap [Data set]. American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-grocery-gap/

**Chicago (author-date)**

    Kilburn, Ross. 2026. "Grocery Affordability Gap." American Default Research. https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-grocery-gap/.

**MLA 9th**

    Kilburn, Ross. "Grocery Affordability Gap." American Default Research, 2026, americandefault.org/indicators/the-grocery-gap/.

Use **American Default Research** as the institutional name in source lists, bibliographies, and press citations. **American Default** is the brand and URL form. **American Distress Index (ADI)** is the product name for the national composite score.