{ "series_id": "adi", "name": "American Distress Index (ADI)", "taxonomy_version": "family-v1", "level": "national", "frequency": "quarterly", "source": "American Default Research, computed from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis series (attribution per input in methodology.registry)", "last_updated": "2026-10-15T00:00:00Z", "summary": { "n_published_quarters": 86, "first_quarter": "2005-Q1", "last_quarter": "2026-Q2", "peak": { "quarter": "2009-Q3", "composite": 90.0 }, "trough": { "quarter": "2021-Q4", "composite": 22.74 }, "latest": { "quarter": "2026-Q2", "composite": 46.99, "band": 3, "band_label": "Typical", "reading": "On average, its inputs sit higher than in 47% of their own quarterly histories", "rank_in_history": { "percent_of_quarters_below": 44.7, "reading": "The composite itself sits higher than 44% of all published quarters since 2005", "rule": "share of the other published quarters with a lower composite, (n - rank) / (n - 1) x 100 with tied quarters sharing the lower count, rounded down in the reading so it is literally true; distinct from the composite value, which is a mean of input percentiles, not itself a percentile of quarters" }, "domains": { "delinquency": 61.56, "default_legal": 44.85, "debt_burden": 21.51, "labor": 16.44, "safety_net_buffer": 90.59 } } }, "methodology": { "reading": "ADI(t) is the mean of five domain scores, each the mean of its members' Hazen percentiles within their own full quarterly history. A composite of 62 means the index's inputs, on average, sit higher than in 62 percent of their own quarterly histories (each input ranked over its full available record; member start years differ). The composite is a mean of percentiles, not itself a percentile of quarters; the composite's own rank within published quarters is emitted separately as summary.latest.rank_in_history. ADI states where the present sits against the nation's own history; it measures current conditions and makes no forecast.", "domains": { "delinquency": [ "mortgage_delinquency", "credit_card_delinquency", "consumer_loan_delinquency", "auto_loan_delinquency" ], "default_legal": [ "credit_card_chargeoff", "foreclosure_chargeoff_proxy" ], "debt_burden": [ "debt_service_ratio" ], "labor": [ "unemployment_rate", "initial_claims" ], "safety_net_buffer": [ "savings_rate" ] }, "domain_weight": 0.2, "weight_rule": "domain_weight = 1/len(DOMAIN_IDS); member_weight = 1/len(domain members); zero hand-typed weight literals", "normalization": "Hazen percentile per series over its entire available quarterly history in one pass: percentile = (average_rank - 0.5) / n * 100, ties averaged. One yardstick: no regime split, no baseline window, no winsorization, no z-cap, no goalpost anchors.", "orientation_rule": "Every input's direction field is read from its JSON; lower_is_worse values are negated before ranking so higher always means more distress. A missing or unexpected direction aborts the build.", "missing_data_rules": [ "A series-quarter exists only if at least one raw observation is dated within it; the quarterly value is the mean of the observations present. No interpolation, no carry-forward, no imputation.", "Domain score at quarter T = mean of member percentiles over members present at T, minimum one member; members_present is published per domain per quarter so dropout is visible.", "The composite publishes only when all five domains have at least one present member. A lagging member drops out of its domain's trailing quarter rather than stalling the index, and the score restates when it lands.", "A discontinued series stays in history; adding or removing a member is an explicit versioned registry diff, never a runtime fallback.", "Known-stale or broken sources are excluded up front: hud_fha_performance (stale, gappy, starts 2017), duplicate data/distress NY Fed snapshots (the registry reads the canonical indicator series instead), short-history behavioral series (no GFC span)." ], "publication_rule": "publish a quarter only when all five domains have at least one member present", "bands": { "n_bands": 5, "thresholds": [ 20, 40, 60, 80 ], "labels": [ "Minimal", "Low", "Typical", "High", "Severe" ], "derivation": "uniform segments, threshold_i = i * 100 / N_BANDS; labels locked by editorial decision 2026-06-09, severity ascending with the band number (family band-direction rule); thresholds are not calibrated to narrative periods", "label_usage": "labels apply to the national time axis only and always publish alongside the literal reading; state and county scores use ranks and quintile wording, never these labels" }, "registry_exclusions": { "membership_criterion": "A committed series joins the registry only if (a) it measures a household-distress rate or share — not a spread or derived difference, and not a nominal dollar or employment-count total whose full-history percentile tracks trend growth rather than household condition; (b) it has quarterly-resolvable history spanning 2005Q1 to the present; and (c) within its domain it is neither a population subset or superset of an existing member, nor a data-identical duplicate, nor level-redundant with one, nor distorted by a reporting-regime break. Every committed series under data/indicators/door*/ with a direction field and that span is either a registry member or carries a written disposition in registry_exclusions — enforced by the dispositions build gate, which fails closed when a new candidate appears undispositioned. Membership changes are versioned registry diffs.", "excluded": [ { "candidate_id": "small_bank_cc_delinquency", "series": "FRED DRCCLOBS", "reason": "population subset: the member DRCCLACBS covers credit-card delinquency at ALL commercial banks including the other-banks subset; admitting both double-weights card delinquency." }, { "candidate_id": "continuing_claims", "series": "FRED CCSA", "reason": "mechanically downstream of the member initial_claims: continuing claims count prior initial claimants still drawing benefits (contemporaneous r=0.92 on the committed quarterly sample); the labor domain already carries the flow member (initial_claims) and the stock member (unemployment_rate)." }, { "candidate_id": "u6_underemployment", "series": "FRED U6RATE", "reason": "definitional superset: U-6 contains the U-3 unemployed count that the member unemployment_rate measures; admitting both double-counts every unemployed worker." }, { "candidate_id": "mortgage_debt_service", "series": "FRED MDSP", "reason": "strict component of the member debt_service_ratio (TDSP = mortgage MDSP + consumer CDSP); admitting both double-counts mortgage debt service." }, { "candidate_id": "bank_delinquency_spread", "series": "derived spread", "reason": "a derived difference between two bank delinquency rates, not a household-distress level; fails criterion (a) and has no stable distress orientation." }, { "candidate_id": "serious_delinquency_rate", "series": "NY Fed CCP", "reason": "population superset: the all-product 90+ aggregate contains the product-level delinquency the domain's members measure individually; admitting both double-counts every delinquent balance." }, { "candidate_id": "total_delinquency_rate", "series": "NY Fed CCP", "reason": "population superset: the all-product 30+ aggregate contains the product-level delinquency the domain's members measure individually; same class as serious_delinquency_rate." }, { "candidate_id": "student_loan_delinquency", "series": "NY Fed CCP", "reason": "reporting-regime break: the federal payment moratorium held reported delinquency near zero by administrative action and the 2025 resumption of credit-bureau reporting restored it as a step, so the series measures reporting policy as much as household behavior across the sample; excluded until a regime-consistent treatment exists (a future versioned registry diff)." }, { "candidate_id": "parttime_economic_reasons", "series": "BLS LNS12032194", "reason": "level-redundant with the member unemployment_rate (r=0.90 on the committed quarterly sample); the labor domain carries one stock and one flow member by design." }, { "candidate_id": "jolts_quits", "series": "BLS JTSQUR", "reason": "measures labor-market churn and worker confidence, not a household-distress rate; fails criterion (a)." }, { "candidate_id": "nonfarm_payrolls", "series": "FRED PAYEMS", "reason": "a trend-dominated employment count that scales with population; its full-history percentile tracks growth, not household condition; fails criterion (a)." }, { "candidate_id": "atlanta_fed_wage_q1", "series": "Atlanta Fed wage tracker", "reason": "a wage-growth rate, not a household-distress rate; fails criterion (a)." }, { "candidate_id": "wage_inflation_gap", "series": "Computed (Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker - CPI YoY)", "reason": "a derived spread (wage growth minus inflation), not a household-distress level; fails criterion (a), same class as bank_delinquency_spread." }, { "candidate_id": "bankruptcy_chargeoff_proxy", "series": "FRED CORALACBN", "reason": "population superset and scope mismatch: charge-offs on ALL loans contain the member card and mortgage charge-offs and add commercial lending, which is outside household distress." }, { "candidate_id": "consumer_credit_outstanding", "series": "FRED TOTALSL", "reason": "nominal dollar total: its full-history percentile tracks trend growth in population, income, and prices, not household condition; fails criterion (a)." }, { "candidate_id": "credit_card_debt_total", "series": "NY Fed CCP", "reason": "nominal dollar total; same class as consumer_credit_outstanding." }, { "candidate_id": "heloc_balance", "series": "NY Fed CCP", "reason": "nominal dollar total; same class as consumer_credit_outstanding." }, { "candidate_id": "household_debt_total", "series": "NY Fed CCP", "reason": "nominal dollar total; same class as consumer_credit_outstanding." }, { "candidate_id": "revolving_credit", "series": "FRED REVOLSL", "reason": "nominal dollar total; same class as consumer_credit_outstanding." }, { "candidate_id": "mortgage_origination_volume", "series": "NY Fed CCP", "reason": "nominal flow volume driven by the rate cycle and trend growth; low origination can mean tight credit or weak demand, so it has no stable distress orientation; fails criterion (a)." } ] }, "family_coverage_notes": { "default_legal": "Carries the two household charge-off series only. The legal leg (bankruptcy filings) is absent nationally because committed US Courts quarterly coverage has a 2015Q2-2023Q2 hole; after the F-2 quarterly backfill it joins as an explicit registry diff. The mortgage leg (CORSFRMACBS) measures lender-loss foreclosures and reads near its floor in high-home-equity cycles while foreclosure filings rise, so terminal housing distress is understated; label it 'mortgage charge-offs', never 'foreclosures'.", "safety_net_buffer": "Carries the private-buffer member only (personal saving rate, inverted). Committed public-assistance data lacks national history spanning 2005 forward (the committed SNAP file starts 2019-10); a long national assistance series joins later as a registry diff.", "debt_burden": "Single member (household debt service ratio, FRED BOGZ1FL010000346Q — the Z.1 Financial Accounts long-history publication of the same Federal Reserve construct as TDSP, matching TDSP to within rounding (max delta ~0.0003) from 2005-Q1). The committed file keeps its full history from 1980-Q1 and appends strictly-newer TDSP quarters when TDSP lands ahead of the Z.1 code. Readings before 2005-Q1 are on the Board's previous method, so the series is ranked only from 2005-Q1 (its declared series break) and it bounds the index start. Method unchanged." }, "family_relation": "SDI and CDI rank places against other places at one time using the same five-domain taxonomy, the same Hazen transform, and the same registry-derived equal-domain mean; ADI ranks the present quarter against the nation's own quarterly history. ADI is never an average of state or county scores: cross-sectional percentile ranks are a permutation of 1..n every period, so their mean is constant by construction and cannot register aggregate distress.", "vintage_honesty": "Inputs are revised series (Federal Reserve Board bank-condition rates via FRED, NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel, BLS, DOL, and BEA series via FRED). Historical ADI values are computed on today's revised vintages, not on the data as first published. Every run restates the full history: the percentile yardstick grows by one quarter per refresh, trailing partial quarters fill in as observations land, and upstream revisions re-rank past quarters. No out-of-sample claim is made for any historical reading, including the 2008-2010 stretch.", "revision_model": "Each refresh re-ranks every series' full history, so published historical scores restate by small amounts as the yardstick grows, as trailing partial quarters complete, and as upstream sources revise. This is the same revision model as CDI re-ranking counties each refresh.", "registry": [ { "input_id": "mortgage_delinquency", "name": "Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages, All Commercial Banks", "path": "data/indicators/door1_debt/mortgage_delinquency.json", "domain": "delinquency", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "fred_series_id": "DRSFRMACBS", "source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System data retrieved via FRED", "unit": "percent", "n_quarters": 102, "first_quarter": "2001-Q1", "last_quarter": "2026-Q2", "last_updated": "2026-09-03T04:52:19Z", "member_weight_within_domain": 0.25 }, { "input_id": "credit_card_delinquency", "name": "Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans", "path": "data/indicators/door1_debt/credit_card_delinquency.json", "domain": "delinquency", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "fred_series_id": "DRCCLACBS", "source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System data retrieved via FRED", "unit": "percent", "n_quarters": 66, "first_quarter": "2010-Q1", "last_quarter": "2026-Q2", "last_updated": "2026-08-26T00:00:00Z", "member_weight_within_domain": 0.25 }, { "input_id": "consumer_loan_delinquency", "name": "Delinquency Rate on Consumer Loans (ex credit card)", "path": "data/indicators/door1_debt/consumer_loan_delinquency.json", "domain": "delinquency", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "fred_series_id": "DROCLACBS", "source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System data retrieved via FRED", "unit": "percent", "n_quarters": 102, "first_quarter": "2001-Q1", "last_quarter": "2026-Q2", "last_updated": "2026-08-26T00:00:00Z", "member_weight_within_domain": 0.25 }, { "input_id": "auto_loan_delinquency", "name": "Auto Loans 90+ Days Past Due", "path": "data/indicators/door1_debt/auto_loan_delinquency.json", "domain": "delinquency", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "fred_series_id": null, "source": "Federal Reserve Bank of New York Household Debt and Credit Report", "unit": "percent", "n_quarters": 94, "first_quarter": "2003-Q1", "last_quarter": "2026-Q2", "last_updated": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "member_weight_within_domain": 0.25 }, { "input_id": "credit_card_chargeoff", "name": "Charge-Off Rate on Credit Card Loans", "path": "data/indicators/door1_debt/credit_card_chargeoff.json", "domain": "default_legal", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "fred_series_id": "CORCCACBS", "source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System data retrieved via FRED", "unit": "percent", "n_quarters": 66, "first_quarter": "2010-Q1", "last_quarter": "2026-Q2", "last_updated": "2026-08-26T00:00:00Z", "member_weight_within_domain": 0.5 }, { "input_id": "foreclosure_chargeoff_proxy", "name": "Charge-Off Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages", "path": "data/indicators/door2_legal/foreclosure_chargeoff_proxy.json", "domain": "default_legal", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "fred_series_id": "CORSFRMACBS", "source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System data retrieved via FRED", "unit": "percent", "n_quarters": 102, "first_quarter": "2001-Q1", "last_quarter": "2026-Q2", "last_updated": "2026-08-26T00:00:00Z", "member_weight_within_domain": 0.5 }, { "input_id": "debt_service_ratio", "name": "Household Debt Service Ratio", "path": "data/indicators/door3_buffer/debt_service_ratio.json", "domain": "debt_burden", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "fred_series_id": "BOGZ1FL010000346Q", "source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System data retrieved via FRED", "unit": "percent", "n_quarters": 86, "first_quarter": "2005-Q1", "last_quarter": "2026-Q2", "last_updated": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z", "member_weight_within_domain": 1.0, "fred_edge_series_id": "TDSP" }, { "input_id": "unemployment_rate", "name": "Unemployment Rate", "path": "data/indicators/door4_income/unemployment_rate.json", "domain": "labor", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "fred_series_id": "UNRATE", "source": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data retrieved via FRED", "unit": "percent", "n_quarters": 315, "first_quarter": "1948-Q1", "last_quarter": "2026-Q3", "last_updated": "2026-10-02T00:00:00Z", "member_weight_within_domain": 0.5 }, { "input_id": "initial_claims", "name": "Initial Unemployment Claims (SA)", "path": "data/indicators/door4_income/initial_claims.json", "domain": "labor", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "fred_series_id": "ICSA", "source": "U.S. Department of Labor data retrieved via FRED", "unit": "count", "n_quarters": 240, "first_quarter": "1967-Q1", "last_quarter": "2026-Q4", "last_updated": "2026-10-15T00:00:00Z", "member_weight_within_domain": 0.5 }, { "input_id": "savings_rate", "name": "Personal Saving Rate", "path": "data/indicators/door3_buffer/savings_rate.json", "domain": "safety_net_buffer", "direction": "lower_is_worse", "fred_series_id": "PSAVERT", "source": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data retrieved via FRED", "unit": "percent", "n_quarters": 271, "first_quarter": "1959-Q1", "last_quarter": "2026-Q3", "last_updated": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z", "member_weight_within_domain": 1.0 } ] }, "validation": { "weights": { "pass": true, "domain_weight": 0.2, "member_weights": { "delinquency": 0.25, "default_legal": 0.5, "debt_burden": 1.0, "labor": 0.5, "safety_net_buffer": 1.0 }, "total_weight": 1.0, "rule": "domain_weight = 1/len(DOMAIN_IDS); member_weight = 1/len(domain members); zero hand-typed weight literals" }, "labels": { "pass": true, "labels": [ "Minimal", "Low", "Typical", "High", "Severe" ], "rule": "exactly N_BANDS labels, locked to the 2026-06-09 editorial decision, severity ascending with the band number (family band-direction rule)" }, "dispositions": { "pass": true, "n_candidates": 30, "n_members": 10, "n_excluded": 20, "undispositioned": [], "member_and_excluded_overlap": [], "exclusions_not_currently_in_universe": [], "rule": "every committed data/indicators/door*/ series carrying any of the four declared direction values, with quarterly history spanning 2005Q1-2024Q4+, is a registry member or carries a written disposition; an undispositioned candidate, a member-exclusion overlap, or a written exclusion that no longer names a live candidate fails the build" }, "seam": { "pass": true, "seam_abs_delta_2014Q4_to_2015Q1": 5.3259, "threshold_p95_of_all_abs_deltas": 6.876, "median_abs_delta": 2.3907, "n_deltas": 85, "rule": "|ADI(2015-Q1) - ADI(2014-Q4)| must not exceed the 95th percentile of all quarter-over-quarter |delta|" }, "gfc": { "pass": true, "published_range_contiguous": true, "worst_8q_window": "2009-Q1 to 2010-Q4", "worst_8q_window_mean": 86.9, "worst_12_quarters": [ "2009-Q3", "2009-Q4", "2010-Q1", "2009-Q1", "2010-Q2", "2010-Q4", "2010-Q3", "2009-Q2", "2008-Q4", "2008-Q3", "2011-Q1", "2011-Q2" ], "rule": "the worst 8-quarter rolling mean must begin within 2008-2010" }, "orientation": { "pass": true, "per_input": [ { "input_id": "mortgage_delinquency", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "quarter": "2026-Q2", "baseline_composite": 46.9907, "unit_composite": 48.4123, "unit_pass": true, "extreme_composite": 50.5691, "extreme_pass": true }, { "input_id": "credit_card_delinquency", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "quarter": "2026-Q2", "baseline_composite": 46.9907, "unit_composite": 48.2786, "unit_pass": true, "extreme_composite": 48.5816, "extreme_pass": true }, { "input_id": "consumer_loan_delinquency", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "quarter": "2026-Q2", "baseline_composite": 46.9907, "unit_composite": 48.9515, "unit_pass": true, "extreme_composite": 49.3437, "extreme_pass": true }, { "input_id": "auto_loan_delinquency", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "quarter": "2026-Q2", "baseline_composite": 46.9907, "unit_composite": 47.0439, "unit_pass": true, "extreme_composite": 47.0439, "extreme_pass": true }, { "input_id": "credit_card_chargeoff", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "quarter": "2026-Q2", "baseline_composite": 46.9907, "unit_composite": 49.1877, "unit_pass": true, "extreme_composite": 50.2483, "extreme_pass": true }, { "input_id": "foreclosure_chargeoff_proxy", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "quarter": "2026-Q2", "baseline_composite": 46.9907, "unit_composite": 52.775, "unit_pass": true, "extreme_composite": 54.6378, "extreme_pass": true }, { "input_id": "debt_service_ratio", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "quarter": "2026-Q2", "baseline_composite": 46.9907, "unit_composite": 55.8279, "unit_pass": true, "extreme_composite": 62.5721, "extreme_pass": true }, { "input_id": "unemployment_rate", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "quarter": "2026-Q2", "baseline_composite": 46.9907, "unit_composite": 48.9907, "unit_pass": true, "extreme_composite": 54.4987, "extreme_pass": true }, { "input_id": "initial_claims", "direction": "higher_is_worse", "quarter": "2026-Q2", "baseline_composite": 46.9907, "unit_composite": 46.9907, "unit_pass": true, "extreme_composite": 56.1574, "extreme_pass": true }, { "input_id": "savings_rate", "direction": "lower_is_worse", "quarter": "2026-Q2", "baseline_composite": 46.9907, "unit_composite": 47.7287, "unit_pass": true, "extreme_composite": 48.8357, "extreme_pass": true } ], "rule": "for every input, perturbing its latest published quarter in the distress direction (sign read from the JSON direction field, applied on the raw scale) must not decrease the composite at that quarter; the to-worst-ever perturbation must strictly increase it unless the quarter already held the series' unique top rank" }, "vintage_honesty_present": { "pass": true, "rule": "the methodology block must contain the vintage-honesty statement" }, "reproducibility": { "pass": true, "rule": "two full in-process passes (each re-reading inputs from disk) serialize byte-identically; validate_adi.py re-verifies across separate processes" } }, "data": [ { "quarter": "2005-Q1", "composite": 56.83, "band": 3, "band_range": "40-60", "band_label": "Typical", "domains": { "delinquency": { "score": 24.2, "members_present": 3 }, "default_legal": { "score": 38.73, "members_present": 1 }, "debt_burden": { "score": 77.33, "members_present": 1 }, "labor": { "score": 46.29, "members_present": 2 }, "safety_net_buffer": { "score": 97.6, "members_present": 1 } }, "members": { "mortgage_delinquency": 1.47, "consumer_loan_delinquency": 57.84, "auto_loan_delinquency": 13.3, "foreclosure_chargeoff_proxy": 38.73, "debt_service_ratio": 77.33, "unemployment_rate": 45.71, "initial_claims": 46.88, "savings_rate": 97.6 } }, { "quarter": "2005-Q2", "composite": 55.43, "band": 3, "band_range": "40-60", "band_label": "Typical", "domains": { "delinquency": { "score": 19.13, "members_present": 3 }, "default_legal": { "score": 38.73, "members_present": 1 }, "debt_burden": { "score": 78.49, "members_present": 1 }, "labor": { "score": 41.75, "members_present": 2 }, "safety_net_buffer": { "score": 99.08, "members_present": 1 } }, "members": { "mortgage_delinquency": 2.45, "consumer_loan_delinquency": 54.41, "auto_loan_delinquency": 0.53, "foreclosure_chargeoff_proxy": 38.73, "debt_service_ratio": 78.49, "unemployment_rate": 40.79, 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