{
  "meta": {
    "slug": "the-horizon",
    "name": "METR 50% Task-Completion Horizon",
    "branded_name": "The Horizon",
    "description": null,
    "source": "METR (Model Evaluation & Threat Research)",
    "source_credit": null,
    "source_url": "https://metr.org/time-horizons/",
    "frequency": "as_published",
    "units": "hours",
    "fred_series_id": null,
    "fred_edge_series_id": null,
    "bls_series_id": null,
    "series_id": null,
    "measurement_basis": "METR's 50 percent time horizon is the estimated human-expert task duration at which the evaluated agent's fitted success probability is 50 percent; it is not elapsed agent runtime. The current task suite primarily covers self-contained, well-specified software engineering, machine learning, and cybersecurity tasks with clear success criteria, and METR says measurements above 16 hours are unreliable.",
    "door": 5,
    "trend": "rising",
    "trend_suppressed": null,
    "series_breaks": [],
    "direction": "not_applicable",
    "last_updated": "2026-09-25T00:00:00Z",
    "stale": false,
    "stale_reason": null,
    "data_status": "current",
    "page_url": "https://americandefault.org/indicators/the-horizon/",
    "attribution": "American Default (americandefault.org) — Our analysis is free to use with attribution to American Default Research. Source data stays under each publisher's terms; cite the source named here."
  },
  "current": {
    "value": 17.41,
    "date": "2026-04-01"
  },
  "last_verified": null,
  "data": [
    {
      "date": "2019-02-01",
      "value": 0
    },
    {
      "date": "2020-05-01",
      "value": 0
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-03-01",
      "value": 0.01
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-03-01",
      "value": 0.07
    },
    {
      "date": "2023-11-01",
      "value": 0.07
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-03-01",
      "value": 0.06
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-04-01",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-05-01",
      "value": 0.12
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-06-01",
      "value": 0.19
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-09-01",
      "value": 0.34
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-10-01",
      "value": 0.34
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-12-01",
      "value": 0.65
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-02-01",
      "value": 1.01
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-04-01",
      "value": 2
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-05-01",
      "value": 1.69
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-08-01",
      "value": 3.38
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-11-01",
      "value": 4.88
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-12-01",
      "value": 5.87
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-01",
      "value": 11.98
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "value": 17.41
    }
  ]
}